Box-Toppers still picks Yankees over Nationals in 2020 World Series in pandemic-shortened season

Box-Toppers 2020 preseason predictions (60-game schedule revision)

Box-Toppers picks the Yankees to beat the Nationals in the 2020 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total. With the season now reduced to a planned 60 games, our projected order of finish remains the same, but the projected win total is changed

American League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Yankees	41		Twins	35		Astros	32
Rays*	32		Indians*	32		Rangers	31
Red Sox	31		White Sox	30		Angels	30
Blue Jays	30		Royals	24		Athletics	30
Orioles	20		Tigers	22		Mariners	21
National League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Nationals	36		Reds	33		Dodgers	33
Braves*	34		Brewers	32		Diamondbacks	32
Mets*	33		Cubs	32		Padres	29
Phillies	32		Cardinals	30		Rockies	29
Marlins	24		Pirates	26		Giants	27
* Wild card
ALCS: Yankees over Twins
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series: Yankees over Nationals

Box-Toppers 2020 preseason predictions (162-game schedule)

Here is Box-Toppers’ original 2020 predictions made in March (prior to the pandemic) based on all teams playing a 162-game schedule.

American League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Yankees	110		Twins	95		Astros	86
Rays*	86		Indians*	86		Rangers	83
Red Sox	85		White Sox	81		Angels	82
Blue Jays	81		Royals	64		Athletics	81
Orioles	50		Tigers	59		Mariners	56
National League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Nationals	97		Reds	87		Dodgers	89
Braves*	93		Brewers	86		Diamondbacks	86
Mets*	88		Cubs	86		Padres	79
Phillies	86		Cardinals	82		Rockies	78
Marlins	64		Pirates	70		Giants	74
* Wild card
ALCS: Yankees over Twins
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series: Yankees over Nationals

Box-Toppers picks the New York Yankees to beat the Washington Nationals in the 2020 World Series.

Still.

We made the same prediction in March before the season was thrown into doubt by the coronavirus pandemic. And now that Major League Baseball will attempt a truncated 60-game schedule in the midst of the public health crisis, our prediction remains unchanged.

However, Box-Toppers previously projected the Yankees to win 110 games in 2020. Now, with only 60 games on the entire schedule, Box-Toppers projects they will win 41 games, the most of any team.

Baseball has remained largely frozen since mid-March when COVID-19 shut down most sports and society and there has been almost no roster movement in the intervening weeks and months. So it was a fairly easy process for Box-Toppers to simply re-project teams’ wins based on the fact they are scheduled to play 37 percent of a 162 game schedule. For example, 37 percent of the Yankees’ originally projected 110 wins is 40.7 and that is rounded to 41.

Minor adjustments to win totals were made to break ties and to ensure all projected 900 games planned for 2020 were accounted for.

We picked the Yankees for 2020 based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2015, with added weight given to more recent statistics.

In 2019, Box-Toppers made the preseason prediction that the Yankees would beat the Chicago Cubs in the World Series. Instead, the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros. The Yankees lost in the American League Championship Series to the Astros. The Cubs did not qualify for the playoffs, finishing third in the National League Central division.

Box-Toppers picks last year’s World Series champions, the Washington Nationals, to repeat as National League champions winning 36 games in the 60-game schedule (revised from 97 in a 162-game schedule), most in the NL.

In the AL, Box-Toppers projects four of the five 2019 postseason teams to return to the playoffs in 2020:

• The Yankees are picked to win the AL East with 41 wins (previously projected with 110 wins in a 162-game season, they won 103 in 2019).

• The Minnesota Twins are picked to again win the AL Central with 35 wins (previously projected with 95 wins, they won 101 in 2019).

• The Houston Astros are picked to again win the AL West with 32 wins (previously projected with 86 wins, they won 107 in 2019).

• The Tampa Bay Rays are picked to repeat as an AL Wild Card with 32 wins (previously projected with 86 wins, they won 96 in 2019).

The one change to the AL postseason tournament is the Cleveland Indians, which Box-Toppers picks as the second AL Wild Card team with 32 wins (previously projected with 86 wins). They replace last year’s AL Wild Card team, the Oakland Athletics, who won 97 in 2019, but are projected to win 30 in 2020 (previously projected with 81 wins).

In the NL, Box-Toppers projects three of the five 2019 postseason teams to return to the playoffs in 2020:

• The Nationals are picked to win the NL East with 36 wins (previously projected with 97 wins, they won 93 in 2019).

• The Los Angeles Dodgers are picked to again win the NL West with 33 wins (previously projected with 89 wins, they won 106 in 2019).

• The Atlanta Braves are picked to be an NL Wild Card team with 34 wins. (They were previously projected with 93 wins.) Last year, they won the NL West with 97 wins.

Box-Toppers projects two different teams—the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets—will make the postseason in 2020. The Reds are projected to win the NL Central with 33 wins (previously projected with 87 wins), replacing the St. Louis Cardinals (who won 91 in 2019, but are projected to win 30 in 2020—previously projected to win 82). The Mets are projected to be an NL Wild Card team with 33 wins (previously 88), replacing the Milwaukee Brewers (who won 89 games in 2019, but are projected to win 32 games—previously 86—in 2020).

In the postseason, Box-Toppers makes these projections (as seen in the 2020 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):

• AL Wild Card—Rays over Indians.

• NL Wild Card—Braves over Mets.

• AL Divisional Series—Twins over Astros, Yankees over Rays.

• NL Divisional Series—Dodgers over Reds, Nationals over Braves.

• AL Championship Series—Yankees over Twins.

• NL Championship Series—Nationals over Dodgers.

• World Series—Yankees over Nationals.

Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2019 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2015, with added weight given to more recent statistics.

The Yankees are the top team among Box-Toppers three different time periods used in the formula. Players on the preseason roster accumulated the most Box-Toppers points in 2019 (144.9), over 2018-19 (298.2) and over 2015-19 (621.2).

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ 2019 Box-Toppers point totals:

1. Yankees 144.9

2. Nationals 131.5

3. Twins 123.4

4. Braves 121.4

5. Rays 112.8

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2018-19:

1. Yankees 298.2

2. Twins 238.7

3. Nationals 236.3

4. Braves 230.1

5. Phillies 223.4

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2015-19:

1. Yankees 621.2

2. Mets 557.7

3. Phillies 554.4

4. Nationals 541.0

5. Twins 531.7

•

The Yankees rank first among all teams mainly on the strength of signing free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole from the Astros. Cole led all players in 2019 with 32.2 Box-Toppers points, the fourth-highest single-season point total since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995.

The Nationals lead NL teams after winning the World Series in 2019 with a roster slated to be largely the same in 2020. The Nationals do lose Anthony Rendon (5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2019, ninth among NL third basemen) but maintain their pitching rotation which included three of the NL’s top 10 pitchers in 2019 as ranked by Box-Toppers—Stephen Strasburg (20.7 Box-Toppers points, first among NL pitchers), Patrick Corbin (16.4, sixth) and Max Scherzer (15.4, ninth).

Box-Toppers does not factor in unknown players, rookies or prospects in these preseason picks. All projections are based on past big league performance and since a newcomer has no past big league performance, no projection is possible.

 About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related:

• Box-Toppers 2020 preseason team rankings: Yankees top Box-Toppers 2020 preseason team rankings; champion Nationals rank 2nd

• Box-Toppers 2020 preseason win total and playoff predictions, take 1. Our initial post from March based on a pre-pandemic 162-game schedule. (Post also includes how our 2019 picks fared and how our preseason picks have historically fared.) Box-Toppers picks Yankees over Nationals in 2020 World Series

• Box-Toppers 2019 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers picks Yankees over Cubs in 2019 World Series