Box-Toppers picks Dodgers over White Sox in 2021 World Series

Box-Toppers picks the Los Angeles Dodgers to repeat as World Series champions in 2021, beating the predicted American League champion team, the Chicago White Sox.

Box-Toppers 2021 preseason predictions

Box-Toppers picks the Dodgers to beat the White Sox in the 2021 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.

American League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Yankees	92		White Sox	93		Angels	88
Blue Jays*	89		Twins*	87		Athletics	85
Red Sox	82		Indians	83		Astros	79
Rays	81		Royals	73		Mariners	71
Orioles	61		Tigers	72		Rangers	69
National League
EAST	Wins		CENTRAL	Wins		WEST	Wins
Mets	95		Brewers	84		Dodgers	108
Braves*	86		Cubs	77		Padres*	96
Nationals	85		Cardinals	76		Diamondbacks	77
Phillies	80		Reds	74		Giants	75
Marlins	78		Pirates	64		Rockies	70
* Wild card
ALCS: White Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers over Mets
World Series: Dodgers over White Sox

Box-Toppers projects the Dodgers will have the most wins among all teams—108—and will be the only team with more than 100 wins this season.

These projections are made with the assumption that each team will play a complete 162-game schedule. The 2020 season was shortened to 60 games because of the coronavirus pandemic, though this year things feel more optimistic. While COVID-19 rates nationally are far higher now than they were when baseball was shut down from March through July last year, those rates are falling from their peak late last fall. Vaccinations are underway. Other sports leagues have proven that with safeguards in place, schedule flexibility and for now, no or limited fans in the stands, games can be played and full seasons somewhat successfully completed. Major League Baseball, for now, seems ready to see through a 162-game schedule in 2021 in the face of COVID-19 challenges.

In 2020, to compensate for the shortened season, Major League Baseball expanded the postseason from 10 to 16 teams, with an opening round best-of-three-game Wild Card series played by all postseason qualifying teams. For now, baseball plans to resume the 10-team format used in 2019, with the Wild Card round being only a single-elimination game between each league’s fourth- and fifth-seeds to qualify to play the league’s top seed in the league division series.

Continuing in our long tradition of almost never correctly picking the World Series champion in the preseason (we did get it right in 2009 when we picked the New York Yankees over the Philadelphia Phillies), in 2020 we picked the New York Yankees to defeat the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished last in the National League East and did not qualify for postseason play. They won just 26 games during the pandemic-shortened 60-game season, 10 games fewer than the 36 forecast by Box-Toppers, the largest win forecast shortcoming among all teams.

The Yankees, meanwhile, finished second in the AL East, behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees qualified for a Wild Card playoff spot and beat the Cleveland Indians in the opening round before losing to the eventual AL champion Rays in the AL Divisional Series.

Top projected teams in 2021: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, White Sox

In 2020, the Dodgers beat the Rays in the World Series. Box-Toppers correctly picked the Dodgers to win the NL West and to progress to the NL Championship Series, losing to the Nationals. Box-Toppers picked the Rays to qualify for the postseason and to progress to the AL Division Series, losing to the Yankees.

The Dodgers are picked as Box-Toppers’ top 2021 team, winning 108 games. The next highest win projection belongs to the San Diego Padres. Though they are projected to win 96 games, it will still be 12 games behind the projected win total of their NL West rival Dodgers. The New York Mets are projected with the third-most wins, 95. The top AL team, the Chicago White Sox, are projected to win 93 games.

In the postseason, Box-Toppers makes the projections (as seen in the 2021 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):

AL Wild Card—Toronto Blue Jays over Minnesota Twins.

NL Wild Card—San Diego Padres over Atlanta Braves.

AL Divisional Series—New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays.

NL Divisional Series—New York Mets over Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres.

AL Championship Series—White Sox over Yankees.

NL Championship Series—Dodgers over Mets.

World Series—Dodgers over White Sox.

Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2020 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2016, with added weight given to more recent statistics.

The Dodgers are among the top teams in Box-Toppers three different time periods used in the formula. Players on the preseason roster accumulated the most Box-Toppers points in 2020 (60.1), the second-most over the previous two seasons (174.4 in 2019-20) and the fourth-most over the previous five seasons (470.3 over 2016-20).

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ 2020 Box-Toppers point totals:

1. Dodgers 60.1

2. Padres 51.4

3. White Sox 49.1

4. Blue Jays 44.1

5. Mets 42.4

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2019-20:

1. Mets 174.6

2. Dodgers 174.4

3. Braves 168.3

4. Yankees 166.7

5. Blue Jays 160.6

Here is a look at the top five teams based on players’ Box-Toppers point totals from 2016-20:

1. Yankees 572.8

2. Mets 569.4

3. Nationals 508.5

4. Dodgers 470.3

5. Angels 419.9

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The Dodgers rank first after leading all teams in 2020 and then making the offseason’s most prominent acquisition, signing pitcher Trevor Bauer. With the Reds in 2020, Bauer earned 10.0 Box-Toppers points, second among all players and first among NL players.

The White Sox rise to first among AL teams after finishing 2020 eighth overall and fourth among AL teams. The White Sox notably picked up pitcher Lance Lynn, who had 9.1 Box-Toppers points in 2020 with the Rangers, fourth overall and third among players to change teams in the offseason.

Box-Toppers does not factor in unknown players, rookies or prospects in these preseason picks. All projections are based on past big league performance and since a newcomer has no past big league performance, no projection is possible.

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Last year, Box-Toppers made three separate preseason predictions of team finishes. The first was mostly compiled and written prior to March 11, when COVID-19 shut down everything. It was posted on March 18 and reflected a then-unlikely 162-game game schedule. The second was posted July 10, after the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule was announced. The third was posted July 29 after Major League Baseball announced changes in the postseason schedule, expanding the number of playoff teams from 10 to 16.

In all three preseason prediction posts, our picks were stubbornly and steadfastly consistent (and eventually incorrect). We picked the Yankees over the Nationals in the World Series in all of them. For example, in the first projection, the Yankees won 110 of the 162 games. In the second, they won 41 of the 60 games. And in the the third, they were projected to win an additional playoff round, beating the projected eighth-seed Angels in the opening AL Wild Card playoff round. (See the chart at the bottom of this page A look back at Box-Toppers’ 2020 preseason projections for details.)

Last year, nine of Box-Toppers’ 16 teams picked to qualify for the postseason actually made it there. Box-Toppers correctly projected five of the eight teams to make it to league division series (Astros, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves).

But we correctly picked only two division champions—the Twins in the AL Central and the Dodgers in the NL West.

Among the teams we picked to make the playoffs that didn’t: Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Diamondbacks. The teams we didn’t pick which made the postseason: Blue Jays, Athletics, White Sox, Padres, Cardinals, Cubs, Marlins.

Box-Toppers’ biggest misses on win projections were the Nationals and Dodgers. The Nationals won 10 fewer games than projected (26, rather than the projected 36) and finished last in the NL East rather than winning the NL title as Box-Toppers projected. The Dodgers won 10 more games than projected (43, rather than 33) and still won the NL West, but also went beyond Box-Toppers projection of advancing to and losing in the NL Championship Series—they ended up winning that series and the World Series.

The Texas Rangers won nine fewer games than the 31 projected, winning 22. The Rangers were projected to finish second in the AL West as the sixth-seeded AL playoff team, but ended up finishing last, out of playoff contention.

In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays won eight more games than projected, 40 rather than 32, while the New York Yankees won eight fewer than projected, 33 rather than 41. The Yankees were picked to win the division while the Rays were picked to be a wild card team—the opposite actually happened.

The San Diego Padres also won eight more games than projected, 37 rather than 29.

Only one team won as many games as Box-Toppers projected—the St. Louis Cardinals won 30 games, as predicted. However, Box-Toppers did not pick them to qualify for the postseason. The Cardinals were a wild card team, the NL’s fifth-seed, and lost to the Padres in the Wild Card round.

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Here are the bottom seven underperforming teams based on Box-Toppers 2020 preseason projections:

• 1—Nationals. Forecast: 36 wins. Actual: 26. Difference: -10.

• 2—Rangers. Forecast: 31 wins. Actual: 22. Difference: -9.

• 3—Yankees. Forecast: 41 wins. Actual: 33. Difference: -8.

• 4–Red Sox. Forecast: 31 wins. Actual: 24. Difference: -7.

• 4—Mets. Forecast: 33 wins. Actual: 26. Difference: -7.

• 4—Pirates. Forecast: 26 wins. Actual: 19. Difference: -7.

• 4–Diamondbacks. Forecast: 32 wins. Actual: 25. Difference: -7.

Here are the top six overperforming teams based on Box-Toppers 2020 preseason projections:

• 1—Dodgers. Forecast: 33 wins. Actual: 43. Difference: +10.

• 2—Rays. Forecast: 32 wins. Actual: 40. Difference: +8.

• 2—Padres. Forecast: 29 wins. Actual: 37. Difference: +8.

• 4—Marlins. Forecast: 24 wins. Actual: 31. Difference: +7.

• 5—Athletics. Forecast: 30 wins. Actual: 36. Difference: +6.

• 5—Mariners. Forecast: 21 wins. Actual: 27. Difference: +6.

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It should be noted that Box-Toppers picks are often wrong:

• In 2013, Box-Toppers picked the Dodgers to beat the Blue Jays in the World Series. The Red Sox beat the Cardinals. Box-Toppers picked the Red Sox to finish fourth in the AL East.

• In 2014, Box-Toppers picked the Dodgers to beat the Tigers in the World Series. The Giants beat the Royals. Box-Toppers picked the Giants to finish second in the NL West, failing to earn the Wild Card berth.

• In 2015, Box-Toppers picked the Nationals to beat the Royals in the World Series. The Royals beat the Mets. Box-Toppers was closer, picking the Royals as AL champions, but no cigar.

• In 2016, Box-Toppers picked the Blue Jays over the Cubs in the World Series. The Cubs beat the Indians. Again, Box-Toppers was close, picking the Cubs as NL champions.

• In 2017, Box-Toppers picked the Nationals over the Red Sox in the World Series. The Astros beat the Dodgers. Both of Box-Toppers’ picks made the postseason, but lost in the division series round. The Astros were projected to finish second in the AL West, out of the postseason.

• In 2018, Box-Toppers picked the Indians over the Nationals in the World Series. The Red Sox beat the Dodgers. The Nationals did not make the postseason. The Indians did win the AL Central and lost in the ALDS to the Astros. The Red Sox were projected to win the AL East and lose in the ALCS to the Indians.

• In 2019, Box-Toppers picked the Yankees over the Cubs in the World Series. The Nationals beat the Astros. The Yankees lost the ALCS to the Astros. The Cubs did not qualify for the postseason. The Nationals were projected to lose in the NLCS. The Astros were projected to lose in the ALDS.

But in 2009, Box-Toppers did correctly make the preseason pick that the Yankees would beat the Phillies in that year’s World Series (but then, that year, so did everyone else).

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related

Box-Toppers 2021 preseason team rankings: Dodgers top Box-Toppers 2021 preseason team rankings; White Sox top AL teams

Box-Toppers 2020 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers projects 2020 postseason as it expands to 16 teams 

A look back at Box-Toppers’ 2020 preseason predictions

How did Box-Toppers 2020 preseason predictions pan out by the end of the pandemic-shortened season? Here’s a look showing how many games Box-Toppers predicted each team would win, the number of actual wins each team had and the difference (+/-) between prognostication and reality. For example, Box-Toppers predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers would win 33 games and win the National League West division, but they actually won 43, 10 more than forecast. Box-Toppers projected them to lose in the NL Championship Series but they won that series and went on to win the World Series. Box-Toppers also forecast the Washington Nationals to win 36 games and go on to win the NLCS. But the Nationals won 10 fewer games than that (26) and finished last in the NL East.

American League
	Wins					Wins					Wins
EAST	Forecast	Actual	+/-		CENTRAL	Forecast	Actual	+/-		WEST	Forecast	Actual	+/-
Rays*	32	40	+8		Twins†	35	36	+1		Athletics	30	36	+6
Yankees†	41	33	-8		Indians*	32	35	+3		Astros†	32	29	-3
Blue Jays	30	32	+2		White Sox	30	35	+5		Mariners	21	27	+6
Orioles	20	25	+5		Royals	24	26	+2		Angels*	30	26	-4
Red Sox*	31	24	-7		Tigers	22	23	+1		Rangers*	31	22	-9
National League
	Wins					Wins					Wins
EAST	Forecast	Actual	+/-		CENTRAL	Forecast	Actual	+/-		WEST	Forecast	Actual	+/-
Braves*	34	35	+1		Cubs	32	34	+2		Dodgers†	33	43	+10
Marlins	24	31	+7		Cardinals	30	30	0		Padres	29	37	+8
Phillies*	32	28	-4		Reds†	33	31	-2		Giants	27	29	+2
Mets*	33	26	-7		Brewers*	32	29	-3		Rockies	29	26	-3
Nationals†	36	26	-10		Pirates	26	19	-7		Diamondbacks*	32	25	-7
† Picked as division winning teams in 2020.
* Picked as wild card teams in 2020. (For 2020, wild card teams were expanded to 10 total teams from four in 2019).