Box-Toppers’ NL Division Series preview: Padres vs. Dodgers, Phillies vs. Braves

Both National League Division Series begin Tuesday.

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in one best-of-five game series and the Atlanta Braves face the Philadelphia Phillies in the other. The top two NL seeds, the Dodgers (first) and the Braves (second) received byes from the first round of playoffs and face the winners of the best-of-three Wild Card series played over the weekend.

NL Division Series, Game 1: Padres at Dodgers

The Dodgers rank first in Box-Toppers team rankings, first among NL teams (133.1 Box-Toppers points), while the Padres rank eighth (114.7 points).

The Dodgers rose to lead NL teams in Box-Toppers rankings in early July, rising to the overall lead in mid-August, holding the lead for the final nine weeks. Their margin of lead slipped until the end of the season, when they finished just 1.7 point ahead of the second-place team and top-ranked AL team, the Houston Astros (131.4 points).

The Padres briefly led all NL teams for two weeks in late June, before the Dodgers asserted their lead. Otherwise the Padres have steadily remained in an Wild Card playoff spot through the season, where they finished.

Neither team finished very strong the final week of the season—the Dodgers gained 2.7 points in the final week, while the Padres picked up 3.0 points.

The Padres, the fifth-seeded NL postseason team, defeated the fourth-seeded New York Mets in the NL Wild Card round, two games to one. The Mets were also ranked higher than the Padres in Box-Toppers rankings—fifth with 125.8 points.

The pitching matchup Tuesday:

Padres—Mike Clevinger, 6.4 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 118th overall, 43rd among NL pitchers.

Dodgers—Julio Urias, 19.4 Box-Toppers points, seventh among all players, fourth among NL pitchers.

A look at all four of Tuesday’s Division Series pitching matchups.

Other notable Padres pitchers include:

  • Yu Darvish, 16.8 points, 10th among all players, seventh among NL pitchers.

  • Blake Snell, 13.1 points, 29th overall, 14th among NL pitchers.

Padres key batters include:

Other notable Dodgers pitchers include:

Dodgers top batters include:

  • Right fielder Mookie Betts, 11.7 points, 38th overall, second among NL batters.

  • First baseman Freddie Freeman, 8.5 points, 73rd overall, fourth among NL batters.

  • Third baseman Max Muncy, 7.2 points, 92nd overall, eighth among NL batters.

The Box-Toppers point totals of all players on the teams’ active rosters at season’s end are below. Players who did not earn Box-Toppers points in 2022 are not listed. Players who earned points in 2022 are listed even if they are not on the roster for the upcoming postseason series due to injury or for other reasons.

Padres vs. Dodgers

Here are players for both teams in the NL Divisional Series beginning Tuesday. Players are listed for both teams ranked by Box-Toppers points earned in 2022. All players listed were on active Major or Minor League rosters at the end of the season—not necessarily all of them will be included on postseason rosters. Players not listed earned no Box-Toppers points in 2022.

San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
Player Pos BTP Player Pos BTP
Musgrove, Joe 3705 pi sp 17.4 Urias, Julio 3652 pi sp 19.4
Darvish, Yu 3003 pi sp 16.8 Anderson, Tyler 3656 pi sp 12.7
Snell, Blake 3688 pi sp 13.1 Betts, Mookie 3404 rf 11.7
Clevinger, Mike 3707 pi sp 6.4 Gonsolin, Tony 4211 pi sp 11.4
Manaea, Sean 3637 pi sp 6.0 Kershaw, Clayton 2494 pi sp 10.7
Hader, Josh 3881 pi cp 6.0 Freeman, Freddie 2887 1b 8.5
Machado, Manny 3087 3b 5.5 Heaney, Andrew 3515 pi sp 8.0
Kim, Ha-Seong 4373 ss 5.0 Muncy, Max 3969 3b 7.2
Martinez, Nick 3430 pi sp 5.0 Turner, Justin 2865 3b 6.5
Cronenworth, Jake 4380 2b 4.5 Thompson, Trayce 4567 lf 5.0
Bell, Josh E. 3682 1b 4.5 Buehler, Walker 3943 pi sp 4.0
Drury, Brandon 3744 dh 4.5 Lux, Gavin 4247 2b 3.5
Crismatt, Nabil 4449 pi mr 4.0 Smith, Will 4175 ca dh 3.0
Soto, Juan 3994 rf 2.5 May, Dustin 4214 pi sp 3.0
Morejon, Adrian 4298 pi mr sp 2.0 Gallo, Joey 3485 rf lf ph 2.0
Azocar, Jose 4624 dh pr 2.0 Taylor, Chris 3684 lf ss ph 2.0
Wilson, Steven 4600 pi mr 2.0 Robles, Hansel 3580 pi cp mr 2.0
Grisham, Trent 4246 cf 1.5 Bellinger, Cody 3781 cf 2.0
Profar, Jurickson 3665 lf 2b 1.5 Vesia, Alex 4504 pi mr 2.0
Abrams, CJ 4688 ss 2b 1.5 Pepiot, Ryan 4714 pi sp 2.0
Myers, Wil 3228 1b rf 1.0 Outman, James 4699 rf lf 1.5
Alfaro, Jorge 3920 ca 1.0 Kimbrel, Craig 2825 pi cp 1.0
Suarez, Robert 4750 pi mr 1.0 Price, David 2593 pi mr cp 1.0
Bickford, Phil 4436 pi mr cp 1.0
Jackson, Andre 4748 pi cp 1.0
Rios, Edwin 4632 dh 1.0
Totals 114.7 Totals 133.1
What are those numbers after players' names?

NL Division Series, Game 1: Phillies at Braves

The Braves rank third in Box-Toppers team rankings, second among NL teams (129.0 Box-Toppers points), while the Phillies rank 13th (105.3 points).

The Braves, winners of the 2021 World Series, were not on pace to qualify for the postseason in Box-Toppers rankings until about June, when they took a Wild Card position behind the NL East division-leading New York Mets. The Braves caught fire after that and eventually led NL East teams in Box-Toppers rankings for the final eight weeks of the season, from Aug. 18 on, even though they didn’t pass the Mets in the actual standings until the final weekend of the regular season.

The Phillies were an NL Wild Card-caliber team in Box-Toppers rankings from early July through mid-September. And though they did qualify as a Wild Card team, Box-Toppers rankings had them finishing below the Milwaukee Brewers (107.7 points, 10th overall), who did not qualify as an NL Wild Card. The Phillies also finished behind another team that missed the postseason, the Minnesota Twins of the AL (105.6 points, 11th overall).

Though the Phillies are far outranked by the Dodgers in season Box-Toppers points, they did finish the season stronger. The Dodgers only picked up 2.7 points in the final week of the season, while the Phillies picked up 5.7 and then swept the Wild Card series in two games.

The Phillies were the sixth-seeded NL postseason team and upset the third-seeded St. Louis Cardinals in a two-game sweep on the road in the Wild Card series to advance to the NL Division Series. The Cardinals, winners of the NL Central division, were sixth in Box-Toppers team rankings with 118.3 points.

The pitching matchup Tuesday:

Phillies—Ranger Suarez, 5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 162nd overall, 56th among NL pitchers.

Braves—Max Fried, 16.0 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 12th overall, eighth among NL pitchers.

A look at all four of Tuesday’s Division Series pitching matchups

Other Phillies pitchers include:

Phillies key batters include:

  • First baseman Rhys Hoskins, 6.5 points, 112th overall, 12th among NL batters.

  • Designated hitter Bryce Harper, 6.0 points, 126th overall, 17th among NL batters.

  • Catcher J.T. Realmuto, 5.5 points, 145th overall, 20th among NL batters.

Other Braves pitchers include:

Braves key batters include:

  • Third baseman Austin Riley, 8.0 points, 76th overall, sixth among NL batters.

  • Shortstop Dansby Swanson, 5.7 points, 139th overall, 19th among NL batters.

  • Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, 4.5 points, 213th overall, 36th among NL batters.

The Box-Toppers point totals of all players on the teams’ active rosters at season’s end are below. Players who did not earn Box-Toppers points in 2022 are not listed. Players who earned points in 2022 are listed even if they are not on the roster for the upcoming postseason series due to injury or for other reasons.

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related

Box-Toppers 2022 player rankings leaders

Box-Toppers 2022 final team rankings

Box-Toppers’ AL Division Series previews: Guardians vs. Yankees, Mariners vs. Astros

Box-Toppers’ Wild Card Series previews

Phillies vs. Braves

Here are players for both teams in the NL Divisional Series beginning Tuesday. Players are listed for both teams ranked by Box-Toppers points earned in 2022. All players listed were on active Major or Minor League rosters at the end of the season—not necessarily all of them will be included on postseason rosters. Players not listed earned no Box-Toppers points in 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Player Pos BTP Player Pos BTP
Nola, Aaron 3569 pi sp 16.0 Fried, Max 4011 pi sp 16.0
Wheeler, Zack 3204 pi sp 14.4 Wright, Kyle 4349 pi sp 14.4
Gibson, Kyle 3312 pi sp 9.0 Strider, Spencer 4626 pi sp 13.4
Hoskins, Rhys 3909 1b 6.5 Morton, Charlie 2503 pi sp 10.4
Harper, Bryce 3011 dh 6.0 Odorizzi, Jake 3291 pi sp 9.4
Realmuto, J.T. 3491 ca 5.5 Riley, Austin 4144 3b 8.0
Suarez, Ranger 4228 pi sp 5.0 Swanson, Dansby 3751 ss 5.7
Falter, Bailey 4473 pi sp 4.0 Anderson, Ian 4312 pi sp 5.0
Eflin, Zach 3679 pi sp 3.7 Elder, Bryce 4709 pi sp 4.7
Syndergaard, Noah 3472 pi sp 3.0 d’Arnaud, Travis 3384 ca 4.5
Dominguez, Seranthony 3968 pi cp mr 3.0 Jansen, Kenley 2871 pi cp 4.0
Vierling, Matt 4652 cf lf rf ph 3.0 Duvall, Adam 3573 lf 3.5
Marsh, Brandon 4670 lf cf 2.5 Acuna, Ronald Jr. 3947 rf 3.5
Stott, Bryson 4607 ss 2.5 Harris, Michael 4682 cf 3.5
Schwarber, Kyle 3536 lf 2.0 Olson, Matt 3836 1b 3.0
Sosa, Edmundo 4495 ss ph 2.0 Chavez, Jesse 2780 pi mr 3.0
Bohm, Alec 4309 3b dh 2.0 Ozuna, Marcell 3190 lf dh 2.5
Hand, Brad 2907 pi cp 2.0 Contreras, William 4717 dh 2.5
Knebel, Corey 3757 pi cp 2.0 McHugh, Collin 3316 pi mr cp sp 2.0
Robertson, David 2774 pi mr cp 2.0 Albies, Ozzie 3953 2b 1.5
Hall, Darick 4674 dh 2.0 Grossman, Robbie 3267 lf 1.5
Maton, Nick 4644 2b 2.0 Iglesias, Raisel 3467 pi cp 1.0
Nelson, Nick 4279 pi mr 1.7 Arcia, Orlando 3717 dh ss 1.0
Camargo, Johan 3829 ss 3b 1.5 Matzek, Tyler 3351 pi mr 1.0
Devenski, Chris 3702 pi mr 1.0 Minter, A.J. 3946 pi mr cp 1.0
Coonrod, Sam 4716 pi mr 1.0 Stephens, Jackson 4009 pi mr 1.0
Lee, Dylan 4753 pi mr 1.0
Tromp, Chadwick 4707 ca 1.0
Totals 105.3 Totals 129.0
What are those numbers after players' names?

A Box-Toppers look at Tuesday’s Division Series round pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2022 (’22), over a two-year period (’21-22), over a six-year period (’17-22) and their career point total.
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Game Starter ’22 ’21‑22 ’17‑22 Career
PHI Suarez, Ranger 4228 5.0 14.0 15.0 15.0
ATL Fried, Max 4011 16.0 27.8 44.5 44.5
SEA Gilbert, Logan 4493 14.1 21.1 21.1 21.1
HOU Verlander, Justin 2112 26.0 26.0 93.3 232.6
CLE Quantrill, Cal 4195 6.0 11.7 15.7 15.7
NYY Cole, Gerrit 3232 15.4 37.8 102.4 138.3
SD Clevinger, Mike 3707 6.4 6.4 50.9 53.9
LAD Urias, Julio 3625 19.4 38.5 46.5 52.2
Starters subject to change.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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