NLCS Preview: Padres favored over Phillies, but favorites are 0-4 in ’22 NL postseason

The San Diego Padres hold the advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies in the upcoming 2022 National League Championship Series.

Going into the postseason, both teams would have been voted Least Likely to Succeed, as they are the two-lowest seeded NL playoff teams and both rank lowest in Box-Toppers rankings among NL postseason teams.

Upsetting as it might be to some, the underdogs have upset their way into a best-of-seven game contest for the right to play in the World Series.

The Padres at least are ranked among the top 10 teams in Box-Toppers rankings, finishing in eighth place with its players accumulating 114.7 Box-Toppers points. They also have two players on Box-Toppers season player rankings top 10 list, most of any team—pitchers Joe Musgrove (ninth place with 17.4 Box-Toppers points) and Yu Darvish (10th place with 16.8 points).

But the Padres were the fifth-seeded team among six in the NL postseason. They were also fifth among NL teams in Box-Toppers rankings. While they beat their NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in the NL Division Series, they finished 22 games behind them.

The Phillies were the sixth- and lowest-seeded NL playoff team. Last year, with only five teams per league making the postseason, they would not have qualified for the playoffs. The Phillies were 13th in Box-Toppers team rankings with 105.3 Box-Toppers points, seventh-best among the 15 NL teams. In fact, the Phillies finished behind two teams that did not qualify for the playoffs—the Milwaukee Brewers (10th with 107.7 Box-Toppers points) and the Minnesota Twins (11th with 105.6 points). And while they beat the NL East rival Atlanta Braves in four games in the NL Division Series, they finished 14 games behind them, in third place.

The Phillies made the NLCS by beating the NL third-seed St. Louis Cardinals in two games in the NL Wild Card round and the NL second-seeded Braves in four games in the NL Division Series. The Padres made the NLCS by beating the NL fourth-seed New York Mets in three games and the NL top-seed Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in the NL Division Series.

The Padres will have home-field advantage as the higher seed, hosting Games 1 and 2 and host up to four games in the best-of-seven game series, while the Phillies will host Games 3 and 4 and Game 5, if necessary.

Probable players—The Padres hold the advantage over the Phillies when comparing each team’s core group of 18 players who have been appearing regularly in the postseason so far.

As shown in the chart below, the group of 18 Padres players have a combined 99.2 Box-Toppers points, while a comparable group of 18 Phillies players has a combined 83.1 points.

Starting pitchers—The Padres also have the advantage among starting pitchers, with the two starting pitchers in Box-Toppers season player rankings top 10 list.

The Padres top three likely starters have a combined 47.3 Box-Toppers points while the Phillies comparable three starters have a combined 35.4 points.

Padres top three starters are:

  • Joe Musgrove (17.4 points, ninth overall and sixth among NL pitchers).

  • Yu Darvish (16.8 points, 10th overall and seventh among NL pitchers).

  • Blake Snell (13.1 points, 29th overall and 14th among NL pitchers).

Phillies top three starters are:

  • Aaron Nola (16.0 points, 13th overall and ninth among NL pitchers).

  • Zack Wheeler (14.4 points, 22nd overall and 11th among NL pitchers).

  • Ranger Suarez (5.0 points, 162nd overall and 58th among NL pitchers).

Another Phillies starter, Kyle Gibson, has 9.0 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 65th overall and 32nd among NL pitchers, but has made only one relief appearance this postseason.

Starting batting lineup—The Phillies hold a slight edge among the likely starting nine in the batting lineup. The Phillies’ likely starting nine have a combined 27.0 Box-Toppers points, compared to 26.0 points for the Padres’ likely starting nine.

There are no batters on either team who cracked either the overall top 100 in Box-Toppers season player rankings or the top 10 among NL batters in 2022 Box-Toppers points.

First baseman Rhys Hoskins is the Phillies highest-ranked batter. His 6.5 Box-Toppers points is 112th overall, 12th among NL batters.

Third baseman Manny Machado is the Padres highest-ranked batter. His 5.5 Box-Toppers points is 150th overall, 23rd among NL batters.

In addition to Hoskins, two other Phillies batters have more 2022 Box-Toppers points than Machado—designated hitter Bryce Harper (6.0 points, 126th overall, 17th among NL batters) and catcher J.T. Realmuto (5.5 points, 146th overall, 20th among NL batters).

Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Padres have 7.5 Box-Toppers points while the Phillies’ top three have 5.0. Notable for the Padres is Brandon Drury with 4.5 Box-Toppers points, 37th among NL batters. Notable for the Phillies is Matt Vierling with 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 70th among NL batters.

Relief pitching—The Padres have the advantage when comparing the top three likely relief pitchers. The Padres top three relievers have a combined 18.4 Box-Toppers points, while the Phillies have 15.7 points.

Josh Hader of the Padres has the most points among traditional closing pitchers on both teams with 6.0 Box-Toppers points, 129th overall, 47th among NL pitchers and third among NL closers. The Phillies have been using Zack Eflin (3.7 points) recently to close games, but he was a starter during the season.

The other two pitchers on both teams are all traditional starters, but have the most Box-Toppers points and highest ranking among pitchers who are not among the top three starters or top closing pitchers:

It should be noted that the Phillies have had significant contributions this postseason from other relief pitchers not listed below, including Seranthony Dominguez (3.0), Brad Hand (2.0) and David Robertson (2.0). The Padres also have had significant contributions this postseason from other relief pitchers not listed below, including Nick Martinez (5.0), Adrian Morejon (2.0) and Robert Suarez (1.0).

Conclusion—When these two teams have played this postseason, the obvious team has never won the series. The Cardinals should have beaten the Phillies, the Braves should have beaten the Phillies, the Mets should have beaten the Padres and the Dodgers should have beaten the Padres.

While the Padres are the obvious team this time, with superior starting pitching, an advantage in the bullpen and both teams roughly equal offensively, it will come as no surprise if the Phillies, again the less obvious team, find a way to come out on top.

National League Championship Series Game 1, Phillies at Padres

The pitching matchup Tuesday:

Phillies—Zack Wheeler, 14.4 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 22nd among all players, 11th among NL pitchers. Wheeler was Player of the Game in the NL Wild Card series Game 1 win over the Cardinals. He also started the NLDS Game 2 loss to the Braves.

Padres—Yu Darvish, 16.8 Box-Toppers points in 2022, 10th among all players, seventh among NL pitchers. Darvish has started two games this postseason, but did not earn Player of the Game in either, the NL Wild Card Game 1 win over the Mets and the NLDS Game 2 win over the Dodgers.

A Box-Toppers look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups

A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2022 (’22), over a two-year period (’21-22), over a six-year period (’17-22) and their career point total.
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Game Starter ’22 ’21‑22 ’17‑22 Career
PHI Wheeler, Zack 3204 14.4 35.5 57.2 68.9
SD Darvish, Yu 3003 16.8 29.9 68.4 124.0
What are those numbers after players' names?
Chart is sortable. Click a column header to re-sort the chart by the values in that column. Refresh page to restore chart to default, game-by-game view.
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See the Box-Toppers point totals of all Phillies and Padres players who earned Player of the Game honors in 2022.

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.

Related

Box-Toppers 2022 player rankings leaders

Box-Toppers 2022 final team rankings

Box-Toppers’ NL Division Series preview: Padres vs. Dodgers, Phillies vs. Braves

Box-Toppers’ AL Division Series previews: Guardians vs. Yankees, Mariners vs. Astros

Box-Toppers’ Wild Card Series previews

NL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Phillies and Padres listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2022 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:
Pos Phillies BTP Rank Pos Padres BTP Rank
1B Rhys Hoskins 6.5 112 1B Wil Myers 1.0 571
2B Jean Segura 0.0 1130 2B Jake Cronenworth 4.5 206
SS Bryson Stott 2.5 397 SS Ha-Seong Kim 5.0 176
3B Alec Bohm 2.0 462 3B Manny Machado 5.5 150
CA JT Realmuto 5.5 146 CA Austin Nola 0.0 909
CF Brandon Marsh 2.5 394 CF Trent Grisham 1.5 531
LF Kyle Schwarber 2.0 412 LF Jurickson Profar 1.5 532
RF Nick Castellanos 0.0 793 RF Juan Soto 2.5 358
DH Bryce Harper 6.0 126 DH Josh Bell 4.5 210
PH Matt Vierling 3.0 349 PH Brandon Drury 4.5 215
PH Edmundo Sosa 2.0 429 PH Jose Azocar 2.0 480
PH Dalton Guthrie 0.0 † PH Jorge Alfaro 1.0 635
SP Aaron Nola 16.0 13 SP Joe Musgrove 17.4 9
SP Zack Wheeler 14.4 22 SP Yu Darvish 16.8 10
SP Ranger Suarez 5.0 162 SP Blake Snell 13.1 29
CP Zach Eflin 3.7 263 CP Josh Hader 6.0 129
PI Kyle Gibson 9.0 65 PI Mike Clevinger 6.4 118
PI Noah Syndergaard 3.0 335 PI Sean Manaea 6.0 120
Totals 83.1 Totals 99.2
† Dalton Guthrie is unranked because he has yet to earn Box-Toppers points.
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