Though the Texas Rangers finished first overall in Box-Toppers team rankings for 2023, Box-Toppers favors the Houston Astros to beat them in the American League Championship Series.
For details behind the numbers, click here to see the chart elsewhere on this page: AL Championship Series player comparisons.
Despite the top ranking, the Rangers have been bedeviled by injury all season and there is uncertainty whether some of their key players will be available for the series and if they are, how much their recent injuries may limit them. The Astros meanwhile, though they rank only sixth overall, enter the series healthy and performing much as they did in 2022 en route to winning the World Series title.
But even in a best-case scenario in which recently injured Rangers players are available at full strength, Box-Toppers still gives the advantage to the Astros based on the strength of both teams’ current available players.
How did they get here
Both teams finished with identical win-loss records (90-72), but the Astros won the AL West Division while the Rangers finished second on a tiebreaker because the Astros won more head-to-head games between the two during the regular season, going 9-4.
The Rangers became the fifth-seeded AL playoff team, beating the fourth-seed Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round in a two-game sweep. The Rangers advanced to the AL Division Series, beating the AL top-seeded Baltimore Orioles in a three-game sweep.
The Astros became the second-seeded AL playoff team, receiving a bye to the AL Division Series, where they beat the third-seeded Minnesota Twins, three games to one.
Both teams advance to the AL Championship Series with their AL Division Series wins.
Both teams Box-Toppers team rankings
The Rangers led all teams in Box-Toppers points in 2023 with 128.1. The Astros ranked sixth overall with 118.9, which was fourth among AL teams, behind the Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays (123.6) and the Baltimore Orioles (119.5).
The Rangers have the advantage in Box-Toppers points mainly because of players they acquired at the August trade deadline. The Rangers notably picked up pitchers Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. They were Box-Toppers’ top two players to change teams at the trade deadline, representing an addition at the time of 17.1 points to the Rangers. However, at the same time, the Astros also made a splash, picking up the fourth-highest ranked player to change teams at the trade deadline, pitcher Justin Verlander, moving from the Mets. Verlander had 6.0 points at the August trade deadline.
The Rangers led Box-Toppers team rankings for the final nine weekly reports from Aug. 3 until the end of the season. While they built their huge lead on the strength of trade deadline deals, they didn’t perform particularly well after acquiring them, winning only six over 22 games for a stretch in August and September. They still maintained the Box-Toppers lead despite nearly falling out of playoff contention before rebounding at the end of the season.
Their points lead is also inflated by players who performed well and were injured. Pitcher Jacob deGrom earned 7.7 Box-Toppers points in April and was on pace for an astronomical, record-breaking 45-point season (the single-season record is 33.7 by Randy Johnson in both 2000 and 2002). But deGrom had an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery, shutting him down for the season. Later, in mid-September, Max Scherzer, who they’d acquired from the Mets, was out following a shoulder injury and was forecast to be out for the season and postseason. Scherzer, who became the team’s leader in Box-Toppers points with 15.4, 10th overall and sixth among AL pitchers, was not on the Rangers roster for the AL Division Series and his status for the ALCS against the Astros seemed positive but uncertain even early in the weekend.
But even assuming Scherzer and another injured Rangers pitcher, Jon Gray (7.7 Box-Toppers points, 80th overall, 42nd among AL pitchers) are on the roster, available and at full strength, we still give the edge to the Astros based on the Box-Toppers point totals of players currently available on both teams.
Key 18 players
The Astros have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Astros have 98.9 Box-Toppers points compared to 95.0 for the Rangers.
Top 3 starting pitchers
The Rangers hold the advantage on top 3 starters—37.2 points vs. 29.4 points. But that assumes Scherzer is healthy and at full strength. Replacing Scherzer with the Rangers’ fourth-ranked starter in Box-Toppers points, Nathan Eovaldi (9.7 points), would give them 31.5 points, still an advantage over the Astros’ 29.4. (Though Eovaldi is Rangers’ fourth-ranked starter in Box-Toppers points, he is one of two players to win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors twice this postseason—on Oct. 4 and Oct. 10.)
Interestingly, both teams’ top starters were both midseason acquisitions and both acquired from the New York Mets—Scherzer for the Rangers and Justin Verlander for the Astros (12.4 Box-Toppers points, 24th overall and 13th among AL pitchers).
Starting 9 batters
The Astros hold the advantage with its nine starting batters accumulating 46.2 points compared to the Rangers’ 40.4. Right fielder Kyle Tucker leads Astros batters and all Astros players with 12.5 points, 23rd overall and second among AL batters. Tucker is one of six batters to lead his team in Box-Toppers points.
Two other Astros batters rank among the top 10 AL batters—second baseman Jose Altuve (7.7 points, seventh) and outfielder Chas McCormick (7.5 points, ninth). Second baseman Marcus Semien leads Rangers batters with 6.7 points, 113th overall and 15th among AL batters.
Two Astros starting batters had no Box-Toppers points in 2023. Catcher Martin Maldonado had 0.0 points in 116 games played, though had 2.7 in 2022. Shortstop Jeremy Pena had 0.0 points in 2023 and in fact, has yet to make his Box-Toppers debut with his first career regular season Player of the Game honor, despite playing in 286 games over two seasons. However, Pena was Box-Toppers Player of the Game in the 2022 ALCS Game 4 win over the Yankees but since no points are awarded in postseason games, he still has 0.0 for his career. Pena was also named 2022 World Series Most Valuable Player.
Key bench players
Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Astros hold the edge with 6.2 Box-Toppers points compared to 0.0 for the Rangers. None of the three commonly used Rangers bench players earned Box-Toppers points in 2023, though they are ranked in the chart because they earned Box-Toppers points in previous seasons.
Key relievers
Three of the six relievers listed in the chart among both teams were more often used as starters, but in the postseason with shorter rotations, secondary starters are sometimes used in relief. So in this category, the Rangers hold a narrow edge over the Astros, 17.4 vs. 17.1. But if Rangers key pitchers Scherzer and Gray are injured, other relievers with fewer points will be brought in to fill the void, which in a worst-case scenario for the Rangers, would give the Astros a 17.1-8.0 advantage in this category.
Neither closing pitcher finished 2023 ranked particularly high among AL closers in Box-Toppers points. Ryan Pressly of the Astros had 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 12th among AL closers and the Rangers regular closer of late, Jose Leclerc, had 0.0 points in 2023, 62nd among AL closers. Other Rangers pitchers who served as closers during the season fared better in Box-Toppers points, but haven’t been filling the closer role lately—Aroldis Chapman had 4.0 Box-Toppers points in 2023, seventh among AL closers, and Will Smith had 3.0, 16th among AL closers.
Conclusion
Though the Rangers led all teams in Box-Toppers points in 2023, the lead was largely phantom, with many of its points earned by now unavailable injured players or earned by players on other teams before being traded to the Rangers. The Astros are healthy and comparing the points of their available regular players against the Rangers, the Astros have the edge.
AL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Rangers and Astros listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2023 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Rangers | BTP | Rank | Pos | Astros | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | 4.0 | 154 | 1B | Jose Abreu | 4.2 | 221 | |
| 2B | Marcus Semien | 6.7 | 113 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 7.5 | 88 | |
| SS | Corey Seager | 6.2 | 128 | SS | Jeremy Pena | 0.0 | † | |
| 3B | Josh Jung | 3.5 | 299 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 6.0 | 131 | |
| CA | Corey Heim | 4.5 | 205 | CA | Martin Maldonado | 0.0 | 872 | |
| CF | Leody Taveras | 2.0 | 443 | CF | Chas McCormick | 7.5 | 91 | |
| LF | Evan Carter | 1.0 | 726 | LF | Michael Brantley | 2.0 | 446 | |
| RF | Adolis Garcia | 6.0 | 135 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 12.5 | 23 | |
| DH | Mitch Garver | 6.5 | 121 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 6.5 | 118 | |
| PH | Austin Hedges | 0.0 | 892 | PH | Jake Meyers | 3.0 | 360 | |
| PH | Robbie Grossman | 0.0 | 945 | PH | Mauricio Dubon | 1.7 | 527 | |
| PH | Travis Jankowski | 0.0 | 1017 | PH | Yainer Diaz | 1.5 | 564 | |
| SP | Max Scherzer | 15.4 | 10 | SP | Justin Verlander | 12.4 | 24 | |
| SP | Andrew Heaney | 11.4 | 32 | SP | Framber Valdez | 10.0 | 48 | |
| SP | Jordan Montgomery | 10.4 | 43 | SP | Cristian Javier | 7.0 | 102 | |
| CP | Jose Leclerc | 0.0 | 866 | CP | Ryan Pressly | 3.0 | 313 | |
| PI | Nathan Eovaldi | 9.7 | 56 | PI | Hunter Brown | 10.1 | 46 | |
| PI | Jon Gray | 7.7 | 80 | PI | Bryan Abreu | 4.0 | 260 | |
| Totals | 95.0 | Totals | 98.9 |
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AL Championship Series Game 1, Rangers at Astros
The pitching matchup Sunday:
Rangers—Jordan Montgomery, 10.4 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 43rd overall, 21st among AL pitchers. Montgomery was Player of the Game in the AL Wild Card series Game 1 win over the Rays.
Astros—Justin Verlander, 12.4 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 24th among all players, 13th among AL pitchers.
A Box-Toppers look at Sunday’s ALCS Game 1 pitching matchup
A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2023 (’23), over a two-year period (’22-23), over a six-year period (’18-23) and their career point total.Back to top
| Game | Starter | ’23 | ’22‑23 | ’18‑23 | Career |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | Montgomery, Jordan 3814 | 10.4 | 19.8 | 30.5 | 36.5 |
| HOU | Verlander, Justin 2112 | 12.4 | 38.4 | 91.0 | 245.0 |
* Player has yet to earn Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)
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