A Box-Toppers look at postseason awards—For 1st time in 30 years, our picks may win

Box-Toppers points leaders have never won all four major postseason awards since tracking began in 1995.

Box-Toppers postseason honors ballot

Here is a look at Box-Toppers’ ballot selections for the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) 2024 postseason awards. The ballot requires votes out to 10 places for Most Valuable Player in both leagues, five for Cy Young Awards and Rookie of the Year in each league, plus three for Manager of the Year and Reliever of the Year in each league.

Players are shown with their team and their Box-Toppers point (BTP) total for 2024.

	AL Most Valuable Player
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Aaron Judge	Yankees	13.0
2	Juan Soto	Yankees	11.0
3	Tarik Skubal	Tigers	21.1
4	Jose Ramirez	Guardians	9.9
5	Josh Naylor	Guardians	9.0
6	Bobby Witt Jr.	Royals	8.9
7	Luis Gil	Yankees	17.4
8	Ryan Mountcastle	Orioles	8.0
9	Zach Neto	Angels	8.0
10	Bryce Miller	Mariners	15.7
	NL Most Valuable Player
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Shohei Ohtani	Dodgers	11.0
2	Francisco Lindor	Mets	10.9
3	Zack Wheeler	Phillies	21.4
4	Dylan Cease	Padres	21.1
5	Willy Adames	Brewers	10.5
6	Shota Imanaga	Cubs	20.7
7	Matt Chapman	Giants	10.2
8	Brenton Doyle	Rockies	9.7
9	Chris Sale	Braves	19.1
10	Bryce Harper	Phillies	8.7
	AL Cy Young
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Tarik Skubal	Tigers	21.1
2	Luis Gil	Yankees	17.4
3	Bryce Miller	Mariners	15.7
4	George Kirby	Mariners	15.4
5	Framber Valdez	Astros	15.4
	NL Cy Young
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Zack Wheeler	Phillies	21.4
2	Dylan Cease	Padres	21.1
3	Shota Imanaga	Cubs	20.7
4	Chris Sale	Braves	19.1
5	Blake Snell	Giants	15.7
	AL Rookie of the Year
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Luis Gil	Yankees	17.4
2	Max Schuemann	Athletics	5.0
3	Colt Keith	Tigers	5.0
4	Jhonkensy Noel	Guardians	5.0
5	Wilyer Abreu	Red Sox	4.5
	NL Rookie of the Year
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Shota Imanaga	Cubs	20.7
2	Paul Skenes	Pirates	13.0
3	Jackson Chourio	Brewers	5.7
4	Jackson Merrill	Padres	5.0
5	Tobias Myers	Brewers	10.0
	AL Manager of the Year
	Manager	Team	Team BTP
1	Aaron Boone	Yankees	120.9
2	Matt Quatraro	Royals	115.1
3	Joe Espada	Astros	110.5
	NL Manager of the Year
	Manager	Team	Team BTP
1	Rob Thompson	Phillies	124.9
2	Pat Muphy	Brewers	123.7
3	Mike Shildt	Padres	121.8
	AL Reliever of the Year
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Josh Hader	Astros	11.0
2	Andres Munoz	Mariners	6.0
3	Jhoan Duran	Twins	6.0
	NL Reliever of the Year
	Player	Team	BTP
1	Ryan Helsley	Cardinals	12.0
2	Alexis Diaz	Reds	6.0
3	Camilo Doval	Giants	6.0

Box-Toppers gives batters a generous, if somewhat arbitrary, benefit of the doubt in these rankings. In cases where batters are directly compared to pitchers, Box-Toppers ranks batters as if their season Box-Toppers point total were doubled.
For example, in rankings for AL MVP, Aaron Judge ranks first with 13.0 points even though several pitchers (notably Tarik Skubal of the Tigers with 21.1) have more points. Box-Toppers arbitrarily doubles batters’ point totals in figuring these rankings, which would give Judge 26.0 points, ahead of Skubal’s 21.1.
While MVP is traditionally a batter's award, it has been awarded to pitchers either when they have a dominant season, no batters particularly rise to the occasion—or both.

But this year, in the 30th season of tracking, there is a chance that the four Box-Toppers points category leaders (both league’s batters and pitchers) may win the four major awards (both league’s Most Valuable Player and Cy Young awards).

Based on the hubbub and hoopla of commentators at the end of the season, it seems as if at least three of the four Box-Toppers points leaders are surefire locks to win the award, while one other is a leading contender:

American League Cy Young—Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is widely considered the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award for top pitcher. Skubal led AL pitchers with 21.1 Box-Toppers points in 2024, second among all players.

American League Most Valuable Player—Aaron Judge of the Yankees is the favorite to win AL Most Valuable Player. He leads AL batters with 13.0 Box-Toppers points, 21st among all players.

National League Most Valuable Player—Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers is the favorite to win NL MVP. He leads NL batters with 11.0 Box-Toppers points, 41st among all players.

National League Cy Young—Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler led all players and all NL pitchers with 21.4 Box-Toppers points. While some analysts say Wheeler should win, others are giving the nod to Braves pitcher Chris Sale (whose 19.1 Box-Toppers points was fifth overall, fourth among NL pitchers).

Even if only three of the four Box-Toppers leaders win postseason awards in 2024, it would still be rare. Only four times since 1995 have three of the four Box-Toppers points leaders won postseason awards: 1997, 2009, 2013 and 2022.

Box-Toppers stats are used in casting my vote in  Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) balloting, completed at the end of the regular season, prior to the start of postseason play. The internet baseball writers group will tabulate results from member writers and announce them soon.

While the IBWAA voting is not the same as the official voting for the awards by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), the results are often similar.

Here is an overview of Box-Toppers other choices for postseason honors submitted in IBWAA balloting, followed by a more in-depth look at each award:

American League Rookie of the Year—Luis Gil of the Yankees.

National League Rookie of the Year—Shota Imanaga of the Cubs.

American League Manager of the Year—Aaron Boone of the Yankees.

National League Manager of the Year—Rob Thomson of the Phillies.

American League Reliever of the Year—Josh Hader of the Astros.

National League Reliever of the Year—Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals.

American League Most Valuable Player

Aaron Judge, Yankees

Judge led all batters with 13.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024 and was first among AL batters, ahead of second-place Juan Soto, also of the Yankees, with 11.0.

Judge led all players in 2024 in home runs (58), runs batted in (144), walks (133), on-base percentage (.458), slugging percentage (.701) and on-base plus slugging percentage (1.159).

He earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 11 times in 2024, including winning AL Batter of the Day honors four times. (He earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point for each Player of the Game honor and 0.5 bonus points for each AL Batter of the Day honor.)

Judge’s teammate Juan Soto is in second place on Box-Toppers’ AL MVP ballot with 11.0 Box-Toppers points.

In third place on our ballot is Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal, who led AL pitchers with 21.1 Box-Toppers points. When figuring postseason awards in categories in which batters and pitchers are eligible for the same honor, Box-Toppers arbitrarily doubles the Box-Toppers point totals for batters to make it more difficult for pitchers to win what are often considered “batter’s awards” such as the MVP. In this case, Skubal finishes ahead of all AL batters except the top two—Judge (whose arbitrarily doubled point total becomes 26.0) and Soto (whose point total doubles to 22.0).

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians is fourth on Box-Toppers’ AL MVP ballot. He earned 9.9 Box-Toppers points, third among AL batters, but doubling that to 19.8 was less than Skubal’s 21.1 points.

Another highly-touted AL MVP contender, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals, had 8.9 Box-Toppers points in 2024, fifth among AL batters and sixth on Box-Toppers’ AL MVP ballot.

In addition to Skubal, there are two other pitchers out of the 10 players on Box-Toppers’ AL MVP ballot: Luis Gil of the Yankees, in seventh place with 17.4 points (which was second among AL pitchers) and Bryce Miller of the Mariners, in 10th place with 15.7 points (which was third among AL pitchers).

Judge won AL MVP in 2022, but was second that year on Box-Toppers’ AL MVP ballot, behind Shohei Ohtani of the Angels.

If Judge wins AL MVP as expected, it would only be the fifth time in 30 seasons that the leading AL batter in Box-Toppers points won the MVP.

National League Most Valuable Player

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

Ohtani led NL batters with 11.0 Box-Toppers points, 41st among all players.

How often B-T leaders win awards

The chart below shows the number of times the Box-Toppers leader in pitching and batting in both the American and National League have won postseason awards and the percentage of times the category’s Box-Toppers points leader has won.

 

	BTP leader wins postseason award	% BTP leaders win postseason award
NL pitchers	19	65.5%
AL pitchers	15	51.7%
NL batters	5	17.2%
AL batters	4	13.8%

Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995.
For a breakdown of Box-Toppers points batting and pitching leaders each season since 1995, see Box-Toppers season leaders ’95-’23.

Despite Ohtani’s 50-home-run, 50-stolen-base season making him the favorite for NL Most Valuable Player, his Box-Toppers point total didn’t reflect that until almost the end of the season. Box-Toppers Daily Scorecard post covering the games of Sept. 27, when Ohtani took the lead among NL batters, chronicles his rise in rankings from Aug. 30 onward, when he earned 7.0 of his 11.0 points for the season. Ohtani was not even ranked among the top 10 NL batters in Box-Toppers points until Sept. 19.

Ohtani led all players in runs (134) and total bases (411) and led NL batters in home runs (54), runs batted in (130), on-base percentage (.390), slugging percentage (.546) and on-base plus slugging percentage (1.036). He was second among NL players in stolen bases (59) and batting average (.310).

He earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 10 times in 2024, including winning NL Batter of the Day honors twice. In a year in which he did not also pitch (after undergoing elbow surgery a year ago), his Box-Toppers point total was lower than it was in his three previous seasons with the Angels:

• In 2021, he had 16.1 points (12.1 for pitching, 4.0 for batting).

• In 2022, he had 24.7 points (19.7 for pitching, 5.0 for batting).

• In 2023, he had 19.4 points (9.7 for pitching, 9.7 for batting).

Ohtani won AL MVP with the Angels in 2021 and 2023. In 2021, Box-Toppers’ choice for the award was Jose Ramirez of Cleveland. Ohtani was our choice in 2022 when Judge won. And in 2023, Ohtani was both Box-Toppers’ choice and the actual award winner.

Francisco Lindor of the Mets finished just behind Ohtani in 2024 Box-Toppers points with 10.9, earning 1.5 points on the final day of the season.

There are four pitchers on Box-Toppers’ NL MVP ballot and six batters. Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler is in third place on the ballot. He led all players with 21.4 Box-Toppers points. Again, we arbitrarily double batters’ Box-Toppers point totals when comparing them in categories that include pitchers. Only two batters had higher doubled Box-Toppers point totals than Wheeler’s 21.4-point total—Ohtani (22.0) and Lindor (21.8).

American League Cy Young Award

Tarik Skubal, Tigers

Skubal led AL pitchers in Box-Toppers points in 2024 with 21.1, finishing the season second overall, behind Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (21.4).

Skubal, who finished ahead of second-place AL pitcher, Luis Gil of the Yankees (17.4), is also considered the favorite to win the AL Cy Young.

Skubal led all pitchers in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). He led AL pitchers in earned run average (2.39).

Skubal won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 15 times during the regular season, including winning overall Player of the Day honors four times and earning AL Player of the Day honors three times. He earned 1.0 point for each Player of the Game honor, 1.0 bonus point for each Player of the Day and 0.7 bonus points for each AL Player of the Day honor. (He also won Player of the Game honors twice in the postseason, but no Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games, plus voting on awards happens before the playoffs begin.)

While Gil is in second place on our AL Cy Young ballot, I’m guessing he will get very few votes in the official ballot. Gil got off to a hot start but struggled in the second half of the season, earning only 4.0 of his 17.4 points after June 4. Voters often discount players who slump in the second half of the season no matter how consequential they were in the first half.

National League Cy Young Award

Zack Wheeler, Phillies

Wheeler led NL pitchers with 21.4 Box-Toppers points, finishing the season first overall.

Wheeler won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 16 times and won overall Player of the Day honors four times and NL Player of the Day honors twice. He earned 1.0 point for each Player of the Game honor, 1.0 bonus point for each Player of the Day honor and 0.7 bonus points for each NL Player of the Day honor.

Braves pitcher Chris Sale seems to be the favorite by some to win the award. He finished fourth among NL pitchers with 19.1 Box-Toppers points and is in fourth on our NL Cy Young ballot.

Sale had the opportunity to boost his chances for the award with a solid start on the final day of the season on Sept. 30 in the make-up doubleheader against the Mets but was a late scratch with back spasms.

While Sale had a bounceback season—he had 20.1 Box-Toppers points in 2018 with the Red Sox followed by five relatively lackluster seasons—there were three other NL pitchers with more Box-Toppers points in 2024:

• Wheeler with 21.4

• Dylan Cease of the Padres with 21.1

• Shota Imanaga of the Cubs with 20.7.

Interestingly, Blake Snell of the Giants is fifth on our NL Cy Young ballot with 15.7 Box-Toppers points. Snell won the NL Cy Young in 2023 with the Padres but was not among Box-Toppers’ top five NL pitchers that year with just 14.7 points (sixth among NL pitchers). This year, Snell is not among leading contenders for NL Cy Young even though by Box-Toppers measures, he had a better season than 2023.

Rookies of the Year

AL—Luis Gil, Yankees

NL—Shota Imanaga, Cubs

Gil led AL rookies with 17.4 Box-Toppers points, sixth among all players and second among AL pitchers. However, Gil slumped in the second half of the season, earning only 4.0 of his points after June 4. Yet, Gil put up numbers early in the season that still have him as a leading candidate for the AL players with rookie status (even though he made his Box-Toppers debut in 2021).

Top AL rookie batters, all with 5.0 Box-Toppers points, are Max Schuemann of the Athletics, Colt Keith of the Tigers and Jhonkensy Noel of the Guardians. Again, in cases in which batters and pitchers compete for the same award, we arbitrarily double batters’ totals to make them competitive with pitchers. But in this case, all three of these batters’ points, doubled to 10.0, falls far short of Gil’s 17.4.

Imanaga led NL rookies with 20.7 Box-Toppers points, fourth among all players and third among NL pitchers.

Some voters may be reluctant to vote Imanaga as top rookie since he is 31 years old and spent eight seasons pitching in Japan’s professional league. But he is new to the Major Leagues and is technically a rookie.

Others may argue that Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is top rookie and he seems to be the favorite for the honor. Skenes earned 13.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, which while trailing Imanaga considerably, is second among NL rookies.

Skenes got off to a slower start in 2024, starting the season in the minor leagues and did not make his Major League debut until May 11, by which point Imanaga already had earned 7.7 Box-Toppers points. From the time of Skenes’ Box-Toppers debut (May 17), both pitchers earned the same Box-Toppers point total for the remainder of the season—13.0.

Given Imanaga’s higher Box-Toppers point total, the fact that he pitched the entire season and the fact that he matched Skenes’ point total from May 17 on, my vote goes to Imanaga.

Jackson Chourio of the Brewers leads NL rookie batters in Box-Toppers points with 5.7. But doubling his point total would give him 11.4, putting him third on Box-Toppers’ NL top rookie ballot.

Managers of the Year

AL—Aaron Boone, Yankees

NL—Rob Thomson, Phillies

Our criteria for this award is straightforward: Which teams had the most Box-Toppers points. The Yankees led AL teams with 120.9 accumulated Box-Toppers points, so Boone is first on Box-Toppers’ AL managers ballot. The Phillies led NL teams with 124.9 Box-Toppers points, first overall, and so Thomson is first on Box-Toppers’ NL managers ballot.

Relievers of the Year

AL—Josh Hader, Astros

NL—Ryan Helsley, Cardinals

Helsley, who led all closers with 12.0 Box-Toppers points, is our choice for NL Reliever of the Year.

Hader, who led AL closers with 11.0 Box-Toppers points, is our choice for AL Reliever of the Year.

Helsley led NL closers with 49 saves while Hader was second among AL closers with 34 saves. Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians, who led AL closers with 47 saves, earned 4.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, eighth among AL closers and not among the top three AL relievers on Box-Toppers’ ballot.

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These are only Box-Toppers’ choices for awards. The collective IBWAA voting results will be announced soon. The “official” Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) awards will be announced in November.

About Box-Toppers

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

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