Box-Toppers picks the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the 2024 World Series, beating the predicted American League champion Houston Astros.
Box-Toppers 2024 preseason predictions
Box-Toppers picks the Dodgers to beat the Astros in the 2024 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.| American League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Rays | 95 | Twins | 77 | Astros | 99 | ||
| Orioles* | 94 | Guardians | 76 | Rangers* | 97 | ||
| Blue Jays* | 94 | Royals | 75 | Mariners | 92 | ||
| Yankees | 81 | Tigers | 72 | Angels | 66 | ||
| Red Sox | 67 | White Sox | 48 | Athletics | 49 | ||
| National League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Braves | 99 | Cardinals | 84 | Dodgers | 103 | ||
| Phillies* | 91 | Pirates | 81 | D‑Backs* | 93 | ||
| Mets* | 87 | Brewers | 81 | Giants | 82 | ||
| Marlins | 81 | Cubs | 79 | Padres | 76 | ||
| Nationals | 73 | Reds | 78 | Rockies | 60 | ||
| * Wild card | |||||||
| ALCS: Astros over Rays | |||||||
| NLCS: Dodgers over Braves | |||||||
| World Series: Dodgers over Astros | |||||||
Box-Toppers projects the Dodgers will have the most wins among all teams—103—and will be one of three teams with 99 or more wins, along with the Astros and the Atlanta Braves.
The Dodgers are picked to win the National League pennant, beating the Braves in the NL Championship Series. The Braves are predicted to have the second-most wins (99) among NL teams.
The Astros are forecast to win the American League pennant, winning 99 games. They are projected to beat the Tampa Bay Rays (95 wins) in the AL Championship Series.
Here is a look at how Box-Toppers sees each division race playing out:
AL East—The Rays (with 95 wins) will eke out the division crown, just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, both projected with 94 wins. The Orioles are projected to be the second AL Wild Card spot with the Blue Jays taking the third AL Wild Card spot. The New York Yankees are projected to finish with 81 wins (a .500 record) with the Boston Red Sox below .500 with 67 wins.
AL Central—In 2023, only one team in this division finished with a record above .500—the Minnesota Twins at .537. In 2024, we project that none of them will reach .500. The Twins are projected five games under .500 with 77 wins, coming out on top in a tight race in a mediocre division, just ahead of the Cleveland Guardians (76 wins), Kansas City Royals (75 wins) and Detroit Tigers (72). The Chicago White Sox bring up the rear as the projected worst team in 2024 with 48 projected wins (and 114 losses).
AL West—The Astros win the division and the top AL playoff seed with 99 wins. Last year’s World Series champion Texas Rangers are projected in second with 97 wins and the top AL Wild Card. (The Rangers were the second-ranked AL Wild Card in 2023 en route to their title.) The Seattle Mariners finish just short of playoff qualification with 92 projected wins. The Los Angeles Angels (66 projected wins) and Oakland Athletics (49) bring up the rear.
NL East—The Atlanta Braves are projected to win the division with 99 wins, finishing as the second-seed NL playoff team. The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are both projected as NL Wild Card teams with the Phillies forecast to win 91 games (second-ranked NL Wild Card team) and the Mets with 87 wins (third-ranked NL Wild Card team). The Miami Marlins are projected to finish .500 with 81 wins with the Washington Nationals in fifth with 73 wins.
NL Central—Only one team in the division is forecast to finish above .500—the St. Louis Cardinals with 84 wins, the only playoff qualifying team in the division. Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers are projected to finish .500 with 81 wins each. Close behind them are the Chicago Cubs (79 wins) and Cincinnati Reds (78 wins) in a division with a race that’s both very tight and very mediocre.
NL West—The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to have the most wins among all teams with 103, winning the division, the NL pennant and the World Series. The Arizona Diamondbacks, though finishing a projected 10 games behind, are still forecast to win 93 and win the top NL Wild Card spot. The bottom three teams and their projected win totals—the San Francisco Giants (82), San Diego Padres (76) and Colorado Rockies (60). (The Rockies are forecast to be the only NL team to lose more than 100 games, joining the Athletics and White Sox.)
Here is a look at Box-Toppers projections for all 12 postseason spots (as seen in the 2024 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):
American League
Top seed—West Division Champion Houston Astros, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (99 wins).
Second seed—East Division Champion Tampa Bay Rays, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (95 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Minnesota Twins (77 wins).
Fourth seed—Top AL Wild Card Texas Rangers (97 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked AL Wild Card Baltimore Orioles (94 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked AL Wild Card Toronto Blue Jays (94 wins).
National League
Top seed—West Division Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (103 wins).
Second seed—East Division Champion Atlanta Braves, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (99 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion St. Louis Cardinals (84 wins).
Fourth seed—Top-ranked NL Wild Card Arizona Diamondbacks (93 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked NL Wild Card Philadelphia Phillies (91 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked NL Wild Card New York Mets (87 wins).
Wild Card Round
Here are Box-Toppers’ picks in the Wild Card Round:
American League
Sixth-seed Blue Jays over third-seed Twins.
Fourth-seed Rangers over the fifth-seed Orioles.
National League
Sixth-seed Mets over third-seed Cardinals.
Fourth-seed Diamondbacks over the fifth-seed Phillies.
Division Series
In each league’s Division Series, the winner of the 3-6 Wild Card Round plays the league’s second seed and the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card Round plays the top seed.
American League
Second-seed Rays over sixth-seed Blue Jays.
Top-seed Astros over fourth-seed Rangers.
National League
Second-seed Braves over sixth-seed Mets.
Top-seed Dodgers over fourth-seed Diamondbacks.
And as previously mentioned, Box-Toppers projects the Astros over the Rays in the ALCS and the Dodgers over the Braves in the NLCS, with the Dodgers beating the Astros in the World Series.
Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2023 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2019, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
Biggest projected increase, decrease in team wins
Here are the top five teams in Box-Toppers projected win improvement from 2023 to 2024:
Royals, from 56 in 2023 to 75 in 2024, +19.
Cardinals, from 71 in 2023 to 84 in 2024, +13.
Mets, from 75 in 2023 to 87 in 2024, +12.
Astros, from 90 in 2023 to 99 in 2024, +9.
Diamondbacks, from 84 in 2023 to 93 in 2024, +9.
Here are the top six teams projected to have the largest win decline from 2023 to 2024:
White Sox, from 61 in 2023 to 48 in 2024, -13.
Red Sox, from 78 in 2023 to 67 in 2024, -11.
Brewers, from 92 in 2023 to 81 in 2024, -11.
Twins, from 87 in 2023 to 77 in 2024, -10.
Angels, from 73 in 2023 to 66 in 2023, -7.
Orioles, from 101 in 2023 to 94 in 2023, -7.
Box-Toppers picks for postseason awards
Box-Toppers & my sibling internet baseball writers of @IBWAA pick several similar outcomes in preseason prediction voting, including World Series champ (@Dodgers), NL MVP (Freddie Freeman) & NL Cy Young (Spencer Strider).
— Box-Toppers (@BoxToppers) April 1, 2024
A look at B-T’s preseason picks—https://t.co/MtpZfxwymh https://t.co/ha7PtLpGrN
Box-Toppers, as a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWAA), submitted these preseason picks to be amalgamated among all members with consensus results to be announced as the season begins.
Members were also invited to submit choices for 2024 postseason awards. While our picks for team standings are at least based on Box-Toppers points data from previous seasons, these picks for individual awards are more speculative. (However, in 2023 our Box-Toppers data from previous seasons produced a preseason pick for a Mets-Yankees World Series in a season in which both teams faltered mightily.) We base some of our picks on individual awards on 2023 Box-Toppers points leaders. However, past performance is not a forecast of future behavior. Plus, very few who lead a Box-Toppers category in one season repeat their lead in the following season. That said, here are the Box-Toppers picks:
AL Most Valuable Player—Kyle Tucker, Astros. He had 12.5 Box-Toppers points in 2023, second among AL batters, behind only Shohei Ohtani of the Angels (19.4), who moved to the NL Dodgers in 2024. (Ohtani won AL MVP in 2023.) But because Ohtani earned 9.7 of his points as a pitcher and 9.7 as a batter, Tucker actually had the most Box-Toppers points by any player in 2023 earned solely as a batter.
NL Most Valuable Player—Freddie Freeman, Dodgers. He finished third among NL batters in 2023 Box-Toppers points with 10.0, behind Pete Alonso of the Mets (12.0) and Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves (10.7), who went on to win the 2023 NL MVP.
AL Cy Young Award—Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays. He led AL pitchers in 2023 with 20.1 Box-Toppers points, second overall. (Gerrit Cole of the Yankees won the 2023 AL Cy Young. His 17.0 points was fourth among AL pitchers.)
NL Cy Young Award—Spencer Strider, Braves. He led all players in 2023 with 21.1 Box-Toppers points. (Blake Snell of the Padres won the 2023 NL Cy Young. His 14.7 points was sixth among NL pitchers.)
AL Rookie of the Year—Wyatt Langford, Rangers. Langford was Box-Toppers Player of the Game in two 2024 spring training games, March 2 (when he was overall Player of the Day) and March 11.
NL Rookie of the Year—Jackson Chourio, Brewers.
AL Reliever of the Year—Emmanuel Clase, Guardians. Clase was fourth among AL closing pitchers in 2023 Box-Toppers points with 6.0.
NL Reliever of the Year—David Bednar, Pirates. He was second among NL closers in 2023 with 7.0 Box-Toppers points, behind Devin Williams of the Brewers (8.0), who is out perhaps three months with a back injury.
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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Box-Toppers 2023 preseason prediction: Box-Toppers picks Mets over Yankees in 2023 World Series
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