The New York Yankees hold dominating Box-Toppers points advantages over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series.
Looking at the Box-Toppers numbers alone, the Yankees can’t lose. But the Dodgers this postseason, through mojo and moxie (and Mookie), have won two postseason series despite being severely depleted at starting pitching, the same handicap they face in the World Series.
Both teams had the best record in their league in 2024. The Dodgers had the best overall winning percentage (.605), while the Yankees led American League teams (.580), third among all teams behind the Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies (.586).
However, the Yankees finished higher in Box-Toppers team rankings for the season, with its players accumulating a combined 120.9 Box-Toppers points, fourth overall and first among American League teams. Meanwhile, the Dodgers finished eighth overall with 113.7 Box-Toppers points, sixth among National League teams and the lowest among the six NL playoff teams.
The Yankees hold Box-Toppers points advantages over the Dodgers in most comparisons between the teams, including these categories:
Overall team roster. The Yankees’ likely starting World Series roster has 116.7 points compared to 81.3 for the Dodgers. (Click here to see a Box-Toppers World Series player-by-player comparison.)
Likely starting nine batters. The Yankees have 36.0 Box-Toppers points compared to 35.0 for the Dodgers.
Likely four starting pitchers. The Yankees have the overwhelming advantage with 43.8 Box-Toppers points compared to 20.1 for the Dodgers, who are significantly limited by injuries.
Likely relief pitchers. The Yankees also hold a distinct advantage with 29.4 Box-Toppers points compared to 14.7 for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have a slight Box-Toppers points advantage over the Yankees when comparing the top four key bench players, the only category they lead. The Dodgers have 11.5 Box-Toppers points while the Yankees have 7.5.
The marquee matchup for the series features the top two batters in Box-Toppers points in 2024. Aaron Judge of the Yankees led all batters with 13.0 Box-Toppers points and Shohei Ohtani led all NL batters with 11.0 points. However, the deciding factor in the series is more likely to be pitching and specifically the Dodgers’ lack of starting pitching.
Starting pitching is the Dodgers’ biggest problem
The Dodgers have just one starting pitcher who is either uninjured or not recently recovering from an injury: Jack Flaherty, who earned 12.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 34th overall, 17th among NL pitchers and most among all Dodgers players.
Conventional wisdom would say a team can’t win a series of any length with only one healthy, full-strength starting pitcher. Ideally, it would take three or four.
The Dodgers two other primary starters this postseason are:
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 6.4 points, 121st overall, 48th among NL pitchers.
Walker Buehler, 1.7 points, 524th overall, 149th among NL pitchers.
Both missed significant time on the injured list in 2024 and consequently, both have relatively low Box-Toppers point totals. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has limited their outings to five innings or less this postseason and both are making what otherwise seem to be rehab or rebuilding starts in the season’s most important games.
But despite these low expectations, Dodgers starting pitchers may be doing all right. In fact, all three of the Dodgers primary starters have won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors once this postseason:
Flaherty did it Oct. 13 in the NL Championship Series Game 1 win over the Mets.
Yamamoto did it Oct. 11 in the NL Division Series Game 5 win over the Padres.
Buehler did it Oct. 16 in the NL Championship Series Game 3 win over the Mets.
The Dodgers have had no “fourth starter” this postseason, instead piecing together games with groups of relievers pitching three innings or fewer. It’s an everybody-pitch-in-to-pitch-in-this-game sort of effort. In their 11 games this postseason, the Dodgers have been forced into the bullpen game three times, winning twice (Oct. 9 with eight pitchers in the NLDS Game 4 win against the Padres and Oct. 20 with seven pitchers in the NLCS Game 6 win against the Mets) and losing once (Oct. 14 with five pitchers in the NLCS Game 2.
Ryan Brasier is placed as the Dodgers’ fourth starter in Box-Toppers’ series preview roster, as he filled the “opener” role in two of the team’s postseason games in 2024. Brasier had 0.0 points in 2024, 327th among NL pitchers, playing in 29 games in the regular season and serving as opener in four, pitching one inning in each. He has 2.0 career Box-Toppers points earned in 2019 and 2020 with the Red Sox.
Those four Dodgers pitchers—Flaherty, Yamamoto, Buehler and Brasier—combined to have 20.1 Box-Toppers points for 2024. Four pitchers by themselves had more points in 2024 than the combined four Dodgers starters:
Zack Wheeler of the Phillies led all players with 21.4 Box-Toppers points.
Tarik Skubal of the Tigers led AL pitchers with 21.1 points.
Dylan Cease of the Padres had 21.1 points.
Shota Imanaga of the Cubs had 20.7 points.
The Dodgers were forced into this predicament due to injuries by their key regular starters, all unavailable this postseason, including Tyler Glasnow (11.7 points, 19th among NL pitchers), Gavin Stone (9.0 points, 31st among NL pitchers) and Clayton Kershaw (2.0 points, 114th among NL pitchers). (Kershaw is the active leader in career points with 272.4, which is second-most among all players since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995.) In addition, Bobby Miller, who had 8.7 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 24th among NL pitchers, struggled with injury and inconsistency in 2024, earning only 2.0 points, and has not been on the team’s postseason rosters.
Were Glasnow and Stone available, the Dodgers starting four pitchers would have a combined 39.1 points, much more competitive with the Yankees’ 43.8-point total.
A look at Yankees World Series starters
While the Yankees’ four starters have more Box-Toppers points than the Dodgers starting four, the pitcher who leads the team in Box-Toppers points for 2024 has been used sparingly this postseason as his performance declined in the second half of the season.
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil has 17.4 Box-Toppers points in 2024, sixth among all players, second among AL pitchers, most of any player in the World Series and the only player still active this postseason in the overall top 10 in Box-Toppers points. Gil got off to a hot start but struggled in the second half of the season, earning only 4.0 of his 17.4 points after June 4. He’s made just one postseason start, Oct. 18 in the ALCS Game 4 win over the Guardians.
The Yankees top three starters this postseason have been:
Gerrit Cole, 9.7 Box-Toppers points, 61st overall, 28th among AL pitchers. Despite having the fourth-highest Box-Toppers point total among Yankees pitchers, Cole is still considered the team ace. In the previous five full seasons (excluding 2020), Cole averaged 21.0 points each season and was consistently among AL pitching leaders in points. His total was halved this year after missing much of the first half of the season with an elbow injury. He earned 6.7 of his points since Aug. 16. Cole was Player of the Game Oct. 10 in the ALDS Game 4 win over the Royals.
Carlos Rodon, 12.7 points, 26th overall and 13th among AL pitchers. Rodon was Player of the Game Oct. 14 in the ALCS Game 1 win over the Guardians.
Clarke Schmidt, 4.0 points, 240th overall and 72nd among AL pitchers. He’s made two starts this postseason but did not win Player of the Game in either.
Though Gil leads all Yankees pitchers in Box-Toppers points, at this point in the season, given his recent performance and use by the team, his points don’t seem particularly relevant. If Gil’s 17.4 points were subtracted from the Yankees’ starters combined total, it would give them 26.4, making the Dodgers’ 20.1 points seem more competitive.
Could Ohtani pitch?
But the Dodgers could be more competitive on the starting pitching front if Shohei Ohtani were available to pitch.
Ohtani has only been batting this year—leading all NL batters in Box-Toppers points with 11.0—after undergoing elbow surgery at the end of last season. That was expected to keep him off the mound for a year. But it’s now been a year. And Ohtani has been throwing. Odds are the Dodgers would fear for his and the team’s future well-being if they took the risk of having him make his first 2024 pitching appearance in the World Series. But the Dodgers’ pitching need is there. World Series don’t grow on trees. The future may be now.
In 2022, Ohtani earned 24.7 Box-Toppers points with the Angels, including 19.7 as a pitcher, which was third-most among AL pitchers. In 2023, Ohtani earned 19.4 points with the Angels, including 9.7 as a pitcher, which was 28th-most among AL pitchers.
Relief pitchers
While the Dodgers have pieced together two of their seven wins this postseason with only relief pitchers, the Yankees have a large bullpen Box-Toppers points advantage, thanks mainly to the possible return from injury of Nestor Cortes.
The Dodgers’ six top relievers have a combined 14.7 Box-Toppers points, while the Yankees’ top six have 29.4 points.
However, Cortes comprises more than half of the team’s relief pitching point total. Cortes earned 15.4 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 12th among all players, sixth among AL pitchers and second among all Yankees players. (He finished strong, earning 8.7 of his points from Aug. 13 on.) But Cortes was primarily a starting pitcher in 2024. However, Cortes went on the injured list late in the season with a left elbow flexor strain and was not on the roster in the Yankees’ first two postseason series. He has begun throwing again and is expected to make the World Series roster, appearing as a reliever.
Cortes’ 2024 Box-Toppers point total should be viewed skeptically. The points were earned while he was a healthy starter. Now he will appear as a recently injured player, pitching in relief, and one who may not have had the time to recover.
Discounting Cortes’ point total would give the Dodgers’ the bullpen edge in combined Box-Toppers points, 14.7 vs. 14.0.
While the Dodgers have won games using all bullpen games, none of the team’s relievers have won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors this postseason.
However, two Yankees’ relievers have won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors this postseason: Luke Weaver on Oct. 5 in the ALDS Game 1 win over the Royals and Tommy Kahnle on Oct. 9 in the ALDS Game 3 win over the Royals. Weaver, who serves as the team’s closer, has 4.0 Box-Toppers points, 11th among AL closers. Kahnle had 0.0 Box-Toppers points in the 2024 regular season and because of his low point total, does not appear on the Box-Toppers roster of the Yankees’ top 24 players, despite making the postseason roster in both of the team’s series.
Neither of the team’s pitchers used recently in the closer’s role is ranked very high:
Luke Weaver of the Yankees has 4.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 11th among AL closers.
Blake Treinen of the Dodgers has 2.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 36th among NL closers.
Roster
Roster changes
Both teams announced final rosters Friday prior to Game 1, which were not exactly what Box-Toppers projected in the chart elsewhere on this page.The roster moves resulted in net losses in Box-Toppers points for both teams, but the Dodgers’ drop was much more significant, 9.2 vs. 2.0 for the Yankees.
That reduces the Box-Toppers point total of the Yankees’ likely World Series roster from 116.7 to 114.7 and reduces the Dodgers’ likely roster from 81.3 to 72.1.
Three Dodgers listed in Box-Toppers’ chart did not make the actual roster:
• Relief pitcher Evan Phillips, who earned 5.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024.
• Relief pitcher Michael Grove, 2.7 points.
• Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, 2.5 points.
These five players, not included in Box-Toppers unofficial list, made the actual final roster for the Dodgers:
• Relief pitcher Alex Vesia, 1.0 point.
• Relief pitcher Anthony Banda, 0.0 points.
• Relief pitcher Brusdar Graterol, 0.0 points.
• Relief pitcher Ben Casparius, 0.0 points.
• Catcher Austin Barnes, 0.0 points.
Only one of the five players—Vesia—earned Box-Toppers points in 2024.
Two Yankees listed on the Box-Toppers roster did not make the actual roster:
• Relief pitcher Ian Hamilton, 1.0 point.
• Infielder Jon Berti, 1.0 point.
These four players, not included in Box-Toppers’ unofficial list, made the actual final roster for the Yankees, none of whom earned Box-Toppers points in 2024:
• Relief pitcher Jake Cousins
• Relief pitcher Tommy Kahnle
• Relief pitcher Tim Mayza
• Outfielder Jasson Dominguez
None of the roster moves change either team’s overall category advantages:
• The Yankees extend their lead in likely World Series roster players over the Dodgers, 114.7 to 72.1.
• The Yankees lead among the key nine batters remains the same at 36.0 to 35.0.
• The Dodgers lead among key bench players narrows, now at 9.0 to 6.5.
• The Yankees lead among the starting pitchers remains the same at 43.8 to 20.1.
• The Yankees extend their lead in relief pitching from 28.4 to 8.0.
The Box-Toppers point totals for each team’s likely World Series roster shows that the Yankees are largely healthy and intact from the regular season while the Dodgers are seriously depleted by injury.
In the chart below are 24 players who have been most active recently and who are likely to be on the World Series rosters.
The roster list includes nine starting batters, four likely bench players or pinch hitters, four likely starting pitchers, a closing pitcher and six other relief, bullpen or opening pitchers.
The combined Box-Toppers point total of the top 24 Yankees players likely to be on the World Series roster is 116.7. That is 96.5 percent of the team’s total 120.9 points for all players on the final day of the regular season. That means only 4.2 of the team’s points are not accounted for on Box-Toppers’ World Series roster, with only these players excluded:
Reliever Nick Burdi, 1.0 point.
First baseman Ben Rice, 1.5 points.
Infielder DJ LeMahieu, 1.7 points.
The Dodgers by contrast only have 81.3 Box-Toppers points among the 24 players on the Box-Toppers likely World Series roster. That is only 71.5 percent of the team’s total 113.7 points of all players on the final day of the regular season. Among the 32.4 points the Dodgers are missing in the postseason, injuries to their two key starters Glasnow and Stone, make up 20.7 of those points.
The Box-Toppers point total for the likely World Series roster for the Yankees is more (116.7) than the total points earned by Dodgers players for the entire season (113.7). However, the Dodgers overall point total was reduced as they shed players late in the season who had earned Box-Toppers points for them earlier in the season. (For a fuller explanation of this, see the Box-Toppers’ NLCS preview.)
Starting batters
The starting nine batters for both teams are just about even with the Yankees having a 36.0-to-35.0-point advantage.
The matchup features the three batters with the most Box-Toppers points in 2024:
Aaron Judge of the Yankees, who leads AL batters with 13.0 Box-Toppers points, 21st among all players.
Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, who leads NL batters with 11.0 points, 41st among all players.
Juan Soto of the Yankees, who ranks second among AL batters with 11.0 points, 43rd among all players. (Though they both have 11.0 points, Soto ranks lower than Ohtani because he has fewer 2023 points—9.0 vs. 19.4.)
Judge and Soto comprise two-thirds of the Yankees starting nine batters’ points (24.0 of 36.0), with the other seven having 3.0 points or fewer each, including one, shortstop Anthony Volpe, who earned 0.0 points in 2024 (after earning 1.5 points in 2023) and who ranks outside the 780 players who earned Box-Toppers points in 2024, in 948th place.
The Dodgers next-highest ranked batter is first baseman Freddie Freeman, who earned 5.5 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 23rd among NL batters. Three Dodgers starting batters earned 2.0 or fewer points in 2024.
Six of the teams’ starting nine batters have earned Player of the Game honors so far this postseason:
Ohtani did it Oct. 5 in the NLDS Game 1 win over the Padres.
Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux did it Oct. 9 in the NLDS Game 4 win over the Padres.
Judge did it Oct. 15 in the ALCS Game 2 win over the Guardians.
Dodgers rightfielder Mookie Betts did it Oct. 17 in the NLCS Game 4 win over the Mets.
Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton did it Oct. 18 in the ALCS Game 4 win over the Guardians.
Soto did it Oct. 19 in the ALCS Game 5 win over the Guardians.
Top seeds make for classic World Series
Source: MLB.com
No player on either team has won Player of the Game honors more than once this postseason. Both teams have been limited in their games because as top seeds in their leagues, both the Dodgers and Yankees had byes from the Wild Card round of the playoffs. In essence, what we are getting (after three rounds of playoffs) is a classic World Series with the top two teams in each league. (The last time that happened was in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when the top AL team, the Tampa Bay Rays, met the top NL team, the Dodgers, with the Dodgers winning the World Series). The last time it happened after a full season was 2013 when the AL champion Boston Red Sox beat the NL champion St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. Of course, prior to 1969, only the top team from both leagues made the World Series when it was the only postseason round.
It is also a classic World Series because it features the most common matchup of two teams. The Yankees and Dodgers face off in the Fall Classic for the 12th time
Players with no points
There are five players among the 48 players listed in the likely World Series rosters who earned 0.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024, but all still hold an overall ranking because they earned Box-Toppers points in previous seasons. They include one Yankees player, Anthony Volpe, and four Dodgers players, Chris Taylor and pitchers Ryan Brasier, Brent Honeywell Jr. and Daniel Hudson.
The best-of-seven game World Series begins Friday in Los Angeles.
A Box-Toppers look back at regular season series between Yankees, Dodgers
World Series Game 1, Yankees at Dodgers
Friday’s pitching matchup (for more, see matchups chart below):
Yankees—Gerrit Cole, 9.7 Box-Toppers points in 2024, 61st overall, 28th among AL pitchers.
Cole was Player of the Game Oct. 10 in the ALDS Game 4 win over the Royals.
Dodgers—Jack Flaherty, 12.0 Box-Toppers points, 34th overall and 17th among NL pitchers.
Flaherty was Player of the Game Oct. 13 in the NL Championship Series Game 1 win over the Mets.
A Box-Toppers look at Friday’s World Series pitching matchups
A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2024 (’24), this year and last year (’23-24), over a six-year period (’19-24) and their career point total.Back to top
| Game | Starter | ’24 | ’23‑24 | ’19‑24 | Career |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | Cole, Gerrit 3232 | 9.7 | 26.7 | 104.1 | 165.0 |
| LAD | Flaherty, Jack 3971 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 44.2 | 57.3 |
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
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About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)
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Related
Box-Toppers 2024 player rankings leaders
Box-Toppers 2024 final team rankings
Previews of all four Wild Card series
Previews of the 2024 AL Division Series matchups
Previews of the 2024 NL Division Series matchups
ALCS Preview: Top-ranked, top-seeded Yankees favored over Guardians
NLCS Preview: Surging Mets favored over injury-depleted Dodgers
World Series player comparisons
Probable players for the Yankees and Dodgers listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2024 regular season and their overall rank among all players:| New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Players | BTP | Rank | Pos | Players | BTP | Rank | |
| 1B | Anthony Rizzo | 1.5 | 533 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 5.5 | 159 | |
| 2B | Gleyber Torres | 1.5 | 541 | 2B | Gavin Lux | 1.0 | 679 | |
| SS | Anthony Volpe | 0.0 | 948 | SS | Tommy Edman | 2.0 | 417 | |
| 3B | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2.5 | 367 | 3B | Max Muncy | 2.0 | 416 | |
| CA | Austin Wells | 2.5 | 398 | CA | Will Smith | 4.0 | 243 | |
| CF | Aaron Judge | 13.0 | 21 | CF | Andy Pages | 1.0 | 762 | |
| LF | Alex Verdugo | 1.0 | 675 | LF | Teoscar Hernandez | 5.0 | 182 | |
| RF | Juan Soto | 11.0 | 43 | RF | Mookie Betts | 3.5 | 273 | |
| DH | Giancarlo Stanton | 3.0 | 312 | DH | Shohei Ohtani | 11.0 | 41 | |
| PH | Oswaldo Cabrera | 3.0 | 328 | PH | Enrique Hernandez | 4.5 | 213 | |
| PH | Trent Grisham | 2.5 | 378 | PH | Miguel Rojas | 4.5 | 217 | |
| PH | Jon Berti | 1.0 | 617 | PH | Kevin Kiermaier | 2.5 | 391 | |
| PH | Jose Trevino | 1.0 | 684 | PH | Chris Taylor | 0.0 | 814 | |
| SP | Luis Gil | 17.4 | 6 | SP | Jack Flaherty | 12.0 | 34 | |
| SP | Carlos Rodón | 12.7 | 26 | SP | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 6.4 | 121 | |
| SP | Gerrit Cole | 9.7 | 61 | SP | Walker Buehler | 1.7 | 524 | |
| SP | Clarke Schmidt | 4.0 | 240 | SP | Ryan Brasier | 0.0 | 1570 | |
| CP | Luke Weaver | 4.0 | 255 | CP | Blake Treinen | 2.0 | 480 | |
| PI | Nestor Cortes | 15.4 | 12 | PI | Evan Phillips | 5.0 | 190 | |
| PI | Marcus Stroman | 3.0 | 294 | PI | Landon Knack | 3.0 | 337 | |
| PI | Clay Holmes | 3.0 | 304 | PI | Michael Grove | 2.7 | 351 | |
| PI | Mark Leiter Jr. | 2.0 | 429 | PI | Michael Kopech | 2.0 | 406 | |
| PI | Ian Hamilton | 1.0 | 670 | PI | Brent Honeywell Jr. | 0.0 | 1049 | |
| PI | Tim Hill | 1.0 | 712 | PI | Daniel Hudson | 0.0 | 1351 | |
| Totals | 116.7 | Totals | 81.3 | |||||
| Starting 9 (with DH) | 36.0 | Starting 9 (with DH) | 35.0 | |||||
| Bench | 7.5 | Bench | 11.5 | |||||
| Starters | 43.8 | Starters | 20.1 | |||||
| Bullpen | 29.4 | Bullpen | 14.7 | |||||
• “Starting batters” shows each team’s Box-Toppers points among the most likely starting nine batters.
• “Bench” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of top four bench players, listed here as PH (pinch hitters), though some may serve as starters in certain games.
• “Starters” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of the four likely starting pitchers.
• “Bullpen” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of pitchers not listed as starters (SP) or closers (CP).
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