For second straight year, Boston Red Sox projected to be Box-Toppers' most improved team

Box-Toppers projects the Boston Red Sox to be the most improved team in baseball in 2016.

But Box-Toppers also projected the Red Sox to be the most improved team going into 2015, a prediction that didn’t quite pan out.

Projecting the Red Sox

For the second straight year, the Boston Red Sox are projected by Box-Toppers to be baseball’s most improved team. Their 2015 rise wasn’t as great as projected. Here are Box-Toppers’ preseason rankings for the Red Sox from 2014 to 2016, including their projected Box-Toppers point (BTP) total for the season and their rank among all 30 teams, followed by their actual Box-Toppers point total and rank at the end of each season.  

Preseason
projection
Actual
result
BTP Rank BTP Rank
2014 121.7 4th 68.7 30th
2015 92.0 17th 77.6 23rd
2016 103.9 10th ? ?

Both years the prediction happened because the Red Sox had a previous lackluster season followed by an active offseason in which it picked up star players.

This year, the Red Sox picked up 26.3 Box-Toppers points in the offseason, mainly on the strength of signing free agent pitcher David Price, who had 21.1 Box-Toppers points in 2015 with the Tigers and the Blue Jays, second among American League pitchers.

At the end of 2015, the Red Sox ranked 23rd among the 30 teams in Box-Toppers points. They are now ranked 10th in preseason standings. Last year, they finished fifth in the AL East with 78 wins. This year, Box-Toppers projects them to finish in second (to the Toronto Blue Jays) with 95 wins and earn a wild-card spot.

But Box-Toppers also projected a big Red Sox jump going into 2015, which didn’t quite happen. At the end of 2014, the Red Sox ranked 30th in Box-Toppers team rankings. But in the offseason, they made winter moves and signings that gave them a net gain of 23.3 points. Among Red Sox additions going into 2015 were pitchers Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and batters Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. None of those players matched their Box-Toppers point totals from 2014 in 2015.

Those additions helped the Red Sox rise to 17th place in Box-Toppers preseason team rankings in 2015. However, they foundered and finished 2015 ranked 23rd—an improvement from 2014, but not as great as the projected improvement. Box-Toppers projected them having 85 wins in 2015—they fell seven wins short.

In addition to Price, the Red Sox picked up other notable players going into the 2016 season—outfielder Chris B. Young (who had 4.5 Box-Toppers points with the Yankees in 2015) and closing pitcher Craig Kimbrel (who had 6.0 points with the Padres in 2015).

About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers points are a measure of how much a player provides key contributions to his team’s wins. Specifically, Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Related posts

 

Washington Nationals top Box-Toppers' 2015 preseason team rankings

Nationals' offseason net gain in Box-Toppers points pushes them to top of preseason team rankings. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Athletics plummet in rankings and the Cubs and Red Sox make big leaps upward.

Read More

A Box-Toppers look at Dodgers’ winter meeting moves

The Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the most active shoppers for players at this week’s winter meetings, picked up 10 players with a combined 21.0 Box-Toppers points in 2014 and dealt seven players with a total of 18.0 Box-Toppers points.

Read More

Red Sox' De La Rosa, Cubs' Hammel top players for Saturday, May 31; Yankees' Tanaka rises to 2nd in Box-Toppers points

Red Sox pitcher Rubby De La Rosa is Saturday’s Player of the Day. De La Rosa pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out eight in the 7-1 win over the Rays.

This was De La Rosa’s Box-Toppers debut, the first time he has earned Player of the Game honors. He is the 3,342nd player to debut in Box-Toppers since record keeping began in 1995. De La Rosa made his Major League debut May 24, 2011 and was playing in the 26th game of his career and his first of the season.

Cubs pitcher Jason Hammel is National League Player of the Day. Hammel pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out eight in the 8-0 win over the Brewers. Hammel earns 1.7 Box-Toppers points for being NL Player of the Day, giving him 7.7 for the season, moving him up to eighth place in Box-Toppers season player rankings (see the top 10 list on the home page). He ranks fifth in Box-Toppers points among NL pitchers.

De La Rosa and Hammel had virtually identical statistics Saturday and were tied for highest Box-Toppers game score of the day with 11.0. But De La Rosa was given the nod as Player of the Day because he hit no batters and Hammel hit two.

Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers is NL Batter of the Day. Ramirez hit two home runs, went 4-for-4 and drove in five runs in the 12-2 win over the Pirates.

Yoenis Cespedes of the Athletics is American League Player of the Day. Cespedes hit a three-run homer, a two-run triple and doubled in the 11-3 win over the Angels.

Notables: Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka rose to second place in Box-Toppers season player rankings after earning Player of the Game honors Saturday. Tanaka (8IP 1R 9K W in the 3-1 win over the Twins) earns 1.0 Box-Toppers point, giving him 9.7 for the season. He remains the top-ranked AL pitcher and trails only Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright (11.0 Box-Toppers points).

Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto rises to fifth place in Box-Toppers season player rankings after earning Player of the Game honors Saturday. Cueto (7.1IP 0R 7K W in the 5-0 win over the Diamondbacks) earns 1.0 Box-Toppers point, giving him 8.7 for the season. He rises to third place among NL pitchers.

De La Rosa receives 2.0 Box-Toppers points for being Player of the Day. Hammel receives 1.7 for NL Player of the Day. Ramirez and Cespedes each receive 1.5 for being top Batter of the Day in their league.

All of Saturday’s other Players of the Game (listed in the chart below) receive 1.0 Box-Toppers point.

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. Players earn Box-Toppers points for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Top player from each game

Listed from highest to lowest Box-Toppers game score

531 Score Team Player AB R H BI BB K IP H R ER BB K
MLB 11.0 Red Sox Rubby De La Rosa (W, 1-0) - - - - - - 7.0 4 0 0 0 8
NL 11.0 Cubs Jason Hammel (W, 6-3) - - - - - - 7.0 4 0 0 0 8
10.0 Yankees Masahiro Tanaka (W, 8-1) - - - - - - 8.0 4 1 0 2 9
10.0 Cardinals Michael Wacha (W, 4-3) - - - - - - 6.0 3 0 0 0 7
BAT 9.0 Dodgers Hanley Ramirez SS 4 4 4 5 0 0 - - - - - -
8.1 Reds Johnny Cueto (W, 5-4) - - - - - - 7.1 5 0 0 1 7
6.1 `Mets Jacob deGrom - - - - - - 6.1 3 3 3 2 11
BAT 5.0 Athletics Yoenis Cespedes LF 5 2 3 5 0 0 - - - - - -
5.0 `Indians Trevor Bauer - - - - - - 6.0 4 2 2 1 8
5.0 Blue Jays Marcus Stroman (W, 2-0) - - - - - - 6.0 5 1 1 0 6
4.0 Orioles Nelson Cruz DH 2 1 2 3 1 0 - - - - - -
3.0 Nationals Anthony Rendon 3B 5 3 4 1 0 1 - - - - - -
3.0 Padres Will Venable RF, CF 4 1 4 2 0 0 - - - - - -
3.0 Mariners Chris Young (W, 5-2) - - - - - - 6.0 3 2 2 2 6
2.0 Braves Gerald Laird C 4 3 2 1 1 1 - - - - - -

` Denotes that the pitcher had a no-decision in the game and did not pick up a win or a save.

 

White Sox' Chris Sale (8IP 0R 6K) tops players for Sunday, April 6

White Sox pitcher Chris Sale is Sunday’s Player of the Day. Sale pitched eight shutout innings and struck out six in the 5-1 win over the Royals.

Sale moves into fourth place among players in Box-Toppers points in the young 2014 season. He has 3.0 points.

Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon is National League Player of the Day. Simon allowed one run over seven innings and struck out six in the 2-1 win over the Mets.

Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers is NL Batter of the Day. Ramirez homered twice and went 3-4 in the 6-2 win over the Giants.

Chris Colabello of the Twins is American League Batter of the Day. Colabello drove in four runs and went 2-5 in the 10-7 win over the Indians. Colabello is the first batter to earn Player of the Game honors more than once so far this season. With 3.2 Box-Toppers points, he moves into second place among all players for the season, behind only Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez (3.4).

Sale receives 2.0 Box-Toppers points for being Player of the Day. Simon receives 1.7 for NL Player of the Day. Kemp and Colabello each receive 1.5 for being top Batter of the Day in their league.

All of Sunday’s other Players of the Game (listed in the chart below) receive 1.0 Box-Toppers point.

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. Players earn Box-Toppers points for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

Top player from each game

Listed from highest to lowest Box-Toppers game score

406ScoreTeamBATTERSABRHRBIBBSO--PITCHERSIPHRERBBSO
MLB9.0White Sox 0000000  Chris Sale (W, 2-0)8.040016
NL6.0Reds 0000000  Alfredo Simon (W, 1-0)7.041116
 5.1Orioles 0000000  Chris Tillman (W, 1-0)8.151115
 5.0Rangers 0000000  Yu Darvish (W, 1-0)7.070016
 5.0Padres 0000000  Ian Kennedy (W, 1-1)6.031115
 4.1Pirates 0000000  Tony Watson (W, 1-0)1.100003
BAT4.0DodgersHanley Ramirez SS433200         
 4.0Cubs Ryan Kalish LF322320  00.000000
 2.2Brewers 0000000  Yovani Gallardo (W, 2-0)6.270003
BAT2.0Twins Chris Colabello DH512401  00.000000
 2.0Astros Jonathan Villar SS321200  00.000000
 2.0Athletics Jed Lowrie SS111120  00.000000
 2.0Nationals 0000000  Jerry Blevins (W, 1-0)1.000001
 1.0Yankees Brett Gardner LF421212  00.000000
 1.0Diamondbacks Mark Trumbo LF311220  00.000000

NLCS Preview: Cardinals-Dodgers features 2 top-ranked NL Box-Toppers teams, top 3 overall players—Kershaw, Wainwright, Greinke

Box-Toppers playoff preview.png

The National League Championship Series beginning Friday features the top two NL teams in Box-Toppers Team Rankings and the top three players in overall Box-Toppers points.

Game 1 of the best-of-seven series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers begins in St. Louis. The Dodgers just edged out the Cardinals as top NL team in Box-Toppers points for the season with 122.7 (second place overall, behind the Detroit Tigers). The Cardinals were in second in the NL (third overall) with 122.4. 

The Cardinals had the best actual winning percentage in the NL (.599). The Dodgers were in fourth (.568), behind the Cardinals, Braves and Pirates. 

The Cardinals prevailed over the Pirates in the National League Division Series. The Pirates had 115.6 Box-Toppers points for the season, ranked seventh overall. The Dodgers beat the Braves in their NLDS. The Braves had 111.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 11th overall. 

The NLCS between the Cardinals and Dodgers features the top three players in Box-Toppers Player Rankings for the season:

  • Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw has 21.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked first in player rankings.
  • Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright has 20.2 points, ranked second. 
  • Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke has 19.4 points, ranked third. 

In addition, Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller are both in the top 10 in Box-Toppers points among NL pitchers. Lynn ranks seventh with 16.1 points and Miller ranks ninth with 15.4. 

Below are position-by-position match-ups of each player likely in the starting line-up for both teams, along with the four most likely starting pitchers, the team's top closer and an extra pitcher. Also listed are each player's Box-Toppers points earned in 2013, along with their overall rank among players for the season.

If you simply add together the Box-Toppers points of these 14 key players from each team, the Cardinals have 103.7 points and the Dodgers 98.7.

If you compare them position-by-position, the Cardinals have more players with higher Box-Toppers points totals. The Cardinals have the edge in seven positions, the Dodgers in six and they tie in one position (both first basemen Matt Adams and Adrian Gonzalez have 5.0 Box-Toppers points).

In general, the Cardinals edge the Dodgers among batters, with more offensive players with higher Box-Toppers points—in fact, Hanley Ramirez is the only Dodger batter with a higher Box-Toppers point total (5.0) than his Cardinals shortstop counterpart Pete Kozma (2.5).

All three likely starting outfielders for the Dodgers have Box-Toppers point totals of 2.0 or less, meaning they were very rarely the key contributor to Dodgers wins. Carl Crawford was Player of the Game twice during the season earning 2.0 Box-Toppers points. Rookie sensation Yasiel Puig was NL Batter of the Day in his second career game June 4, earning 1.5 points, his only points of the season. And Skip Schumaker, though he appeared in 125 games, did not earn Player of the Game honors during the season, earning 0.0 Box-Toppers points.

To be fair, Dodgers pitchers were often the key contributor to the team's wins, with higher Box-Toppers game scores and earning Player of the Game honors. In fact, Dodgers pitchers have a slight edge over the Cardinals, with two of the three top overall players in Box-Toppers points (Kershaw and Greinke). The Dodgers' closer, Kenley Jansen has more Box-Toppers points than Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal (9.7 to 6.0).

So: The Dodgers have the overall higher Box-Toppers Team Ranking. The Cardinals have a better winning percentage. The Dodgers have a slight edge in pitching. The Cardinals have a seeming clear edge among batters. The Dodgers have the edge in the pitching match-up in Game 1. The Cardinals have home-field advantage. Baseball's best three players this season (by Box-Toppers measures) will be in action. It promises to be a great series. 

Coming Friday: Here is the pitching match-up for Game 1 of the NL Championship Series:

NLCS Game 1, Dodgers at Cardinals

Dodgers: Zack Greinke, 19.4 Box-Toppers points, ranked third overall (see the Top 10 Player ranking list on the home page)

Cardinals: Joe Kelly, 4.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 264th overall

In regular season games, 2.0 Box-Toppers points are awarded for Player of the Day, 1.7 for top player in the opposite league, 1.5 for top batter in each league and 1.0 for the top player in each of the other games. However, no Box-Toppers points are awarded during the postseason. 

NL Championship Series player comparisons 

Likely starting players for the Cardinals and Dodgers listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2013 regular season and their overall player rank among all players

CardinalsBTPRank DodgersBTPRank
1BMatt Adams5.0198 Adrian Gonzalez5.0175
2BMatt Carpenter7.5100 Mark Ellis3.5295
SSPete Kozma2.5408 Hanley Ramirez5.0177
3BDavid Freese5.5154 Juan Uribe3.0323
CAYadier Molina4.0253 A.J. Ellis2.5387
CFJon Jay5.5162 Skip Schumaker0.0920
LFMatt Holliday6.5121 Carl Crawford2.0450
RFCarlos Beltran2.5378 Yasiel Puig1.5542
SPAdam Wainwright20.22 Clayton Kershaw21.71
SPLance Lynn16.111 Zack Greinke19.43
SPJoe Kelly4.0264 Hyun-Jin Ryu9.761
SPMichael Wacha3.0361 Ricky Nolasco9.760
CPTrevor Rosenthal6.0147 Kenley Jansen9.759
PIShelby Miller15.417 Chris Capuano6.0134

Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez tops players in Sunday, Oct. 6's NLDS games

Box-Toppers Daily Scorecard graphic.png

Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers is Sunday's Player of the Day in the two National League Division Series playoff games. 

Ramirez scored three runs and went 3-for-4 in the 13-6 win over the Braves to take a 2-1 series lead for the Dodgers. Ramirez had 5.0 Box-Toppers points during the regular season, ranking 177th overall, second among all NL shortstops. 

Marlon Byrd of the Pirates is Sunday's other Player of the Game. Byrd drove in two runs and went 2-for-3 in the 5-3 win over the Cardinals to take a 2-1 series lead for the Pirates. Byrd had 5.5 Box-Toppers points during the regular season, ranking 164th overall. 

 Coming Monday: All four League Division Series continue Monday. Three of the four series could be decided. Here are the pitching match-ups:

ALDS Game 3, Athletics at Tigers, series tied 1-1

Athletics: Jarrod Parker, 6.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 138th overall

Tigers: Anibal Sanchez, 17.1 Box-Toppers points, ranked seventh overall (see the top 10 Player Rankings list on the home page)

NLDS Game 4, Pirates lead Cardinals 2-1

Cardinals: Michael Wacha, 3.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 361st overall

Pirates: Charlie Morton, 3.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 344th overall

ALDS Game 3, Red Sox lead Rays 2-0

Red Sox: Clay Buchholz, 11.1 Box-Toppers points, ranked 41st overall

Rays: Alex Cobb, 9.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 58th overall

NLDS Game 4, Dodgers lead Braves 2-1

Braves: Freddy Garcia, 1.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 509th overall

Dodgers: Ricky Nolasco, 9.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 60th overall

In regular season games, 2.0 Box-Toppers points are awarded for Player of the Day, 1.7 for top player in the opposite league, 1.5 for top batter in each league and 1.0 for the top player in each of the other games. However, no Box-Toppers points are awarded during the postseason. 

Top player from each game 

Listed from highest to lowest Box-Toppers game score

1006ScoreTeamBATTERSABRHRBIBBSO--PITCHERSIPHRERBBSO
MLB4.0Dodgers Hanley Ramirez SS433210   0.000000
 2.0Pirates Marlon Byrd RF312210   0.000000

Red Sox' John Lackey (CG 2H) tops players for Thursday, Sept. 19

Box-Toppers Daily Scorecard graphic.png

Red Sox pitcher John Lackey is Thursday's Player of the Day. Lackey, who gave up his first hit in the seventh inning, pitched a complete-game two-hitter, striking out eight, in the 3-1 win over the Orioles, clinching a playoff spot for Boston.

Pirates pitcher Gerrit Cole is National League Player of the Day. Cole struck out 12 over six innings in the 10-1 win over the Padres. 

Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers is NL Batter of the Day. Ramirez homered twice, drove in four runs and went 4-for-5 in the 7-6 win over the Diamondbacks, as Los Angeles won the NL West title. 

Prince Fielder of the Tigers is American League Batter of the Day. Fielder went 3-for-4 in the 5-4 win over the Mariners.

Notables: Two other players who earned Player of the Game honors Thursday are among the top 25 in Box-Toppers player rankings for the season: 

  • Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner rises to 13th place. He earns 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being Player of the Game (7IP 1R 10K W in the 2-1 win vs. Mets), giving him 15.7 for the season.
  • Indians pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez rises to 25th place. He earns 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being Player of the Game (7IP 1R 9K ND in 2-1 win vs. Astros), giving him 12.8 for the season.

Coming Friday: Two pitchers among the top 10 in Box-Toppers player rankings (see the list on the home page) are scheduled to start Friday:

  • Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer starts against the White Sox. Scherzer has 17.1 Box-Toppers points, is in sixth place overall and leads all AL players.
  • Pirates pitcher Francisco Liriano starts against the Reds. Liriano has 16.7 Box-Toppers points and is in ninth place overall.

Neither Scherzer nor Liriano is in position Friday to take the outright lead in Box-Toppers points (held by Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright with 19.2) since the most they could earn is 2.0 Box-Toppers points.

Lackey receives 2.0 Box-Toppers points for being Player of the Day. Cole receives 1.7 for NL Player of the Day. Ramirez and Fielder each receive 1.5 for being top Batter of the Day in their league.

All of Thursday's other Players of the Game (listed in the chart below) receive 1.0 Box-Toppers point.

Top player from each game

Listed from highest to lowest Box-Toppers game score

 

919ScoreTeamBATTERSABRHRBIBBSO--PITCHERSIPHRERBBSO
MLB11.0Red Sox 0000000  John Lackey (W, 10-12)9.021128
NL9.0Pirates 0000000  Gerrit Cole (W, 9-7)6.0411312
 8.0Giants 0000000  Madison Bumgarner (W, 13-9)7.0411310
 8.0`Indians 0000000  Ubaldo Jimenez 7.061109
 7.0Blue Jays 0000000  Todd Redmond (W, 4-2)7.041117
 6.0Cubs 0000000  Jake Arrieta (W, 3-2)7.031115
BAT5.0Dodgers Hanley Ramirez SS524400  00.000000
 5.0`Rockies 0000000  Wilton Lopez 2.000003
 3.0Nationals Bryce Harper LF413300  00.000000
BAT2.0Tigers Prince Fielder 1B423100  00.000000
 2.0Athletics Coco Crisp CF422210  00.000000
 1.0Rangers Elvis Andrus SS622300  00.000000

 ` Denotes that the pitcher had a no-decision in the game and did not pick up a win or a save.


Cardinals' Adam Wainwright tops players for Saturday, June 29, rises to 9th place in Box-Toppers points

Box-Toppers Daily Scorecard graphic.png

Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is Saturday's Player of the Day and rises to ninth place among players in Box-Toppers points for the 2013 season (see updated top 10 list on the home page).

Wainwright pitched a complete game, struck out eight and gave up only one run in the 7-1 win over the Athletics. 

Wainwright earns 2.0 Box-Toppers points for being Player of the Day, giving him 10.7 for the season. He is the 10th player to reach 10.0 or more Box-Topers points this season.

Chris Davis of the Orioles is American League Player of the Day. Davis homered twice and drove in five runs in the 11-3 win over the Yankees. 

Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers is National League Batter of the Day. Ramirez homered, drove in three runs and went 3-for-4 in the 4-3 win over the Phillies. 

Wainwright receives 2.0 Box-Toppers points for being Player of the Day. Davis receives 1.7 for AL Player of the Day. Ramirez receives 1.5 for being NL Batter of the Day.

All of Saturday's other Players of the Game (listed in the chart below) receive 1.0 Box-Toppers point:

629ScoreTeamBATTERSABRHRBIBBSO--PITCHERSIPHRERBBSO
MLB8.0Cardinals 0000000  Adam Wainwright (W, 11-5)9.051128
AL7.0Orioles Chris Davis 1B332510  00.000000
 6.0Marlins 0000000  Jacob Turner (W, 2-0)9.071117
 5.0`Blue Jays 0000000  Esmil Rogers 6.060016
BAT4.0Dodgers Hanley Ramirez SS423300  00.000000
 4.0Angels 0000000  Joe Blanton (W, 2-10)7.032226
 4.0`Rays 0000000  Alex Torres 2.000013
 3.0Braves Freddie Freeman 1B331221  00.000000
 2.0Cubs Alfonso Soriano DH513300  00.000000
 2.0Reds Shin-Soo Choo CF423120  00.000000
 2.0Indians Jason Kipnis 2B312210  00.000000
 2.0Twins Justin Morneau 1B312211  00.000000
 2.0Pirates 0000000  Francisco Liriano (W, 7-3)6.071116
 2.0Rockies 0000000  Rafael Betancourt (W, 2-3)1.000001
 1.0Mets Marlon Byrd RF321100  00.000000

 ` Denotes that the pitcher had a no-decision in the game and did not pick up a win or a save.